{"F": {"ts_code": "600782.SH", "name": "新钢股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "钢铁", "sw2": "普钢", "sw3": "板材", "ind": "普钢", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19961225", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.8, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 0.3553, "dv_ttm": 4.8214, "total_mv": 891526.188, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [5.9, 6.2, 3.2, 1.9, 0.9, 3.5], "rev_series": [724.1, 1049.1, 990.0, 711.4, 418.0, 358.1], "np_series": [27.0, 43.4, 10.5, 5.0, 0.3, 0.4], "roe_series": [11.9, 17.2, 3.9, 1.9, 0.1, 0.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 344.1, "np_ttm": -6.7, "ocf_ttm": -2.8, "fcf_ttm": -9.8, "fcf_yield": -11.0, "ocf_yield": -3.2, "gm_median": 3.2, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.44, "gm_chg_2022": -2.7, "npm_median": 0.7, "roe_median": 1.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 47.2, "fix_assets": 212.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.36, "capex_dep": 0.49, "interest_debt": 19.8, "debt_ebitda": 2.4, "debt_ratio": 43.0, "debt_mv": 22.3, "payout": 100.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -28.8, "np_cagr3": -65.1, "rev_yoy": -8.0, "np_yoy": -652.6, "np_vol": 61.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 35.0, "fwd_pe2": 20.7, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 69.0, "peg": 0.51, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["钢材贸易收入", 32.0], ["钢材及钢绞线收入", 32.0], ["其他收入", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 17.2, "ret_prev2_year": 0.0, "ret_ytd": -25.2, "ret_pivot": 11.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.7, "ret_60": 8.1, "ret_120": -29.6, "ret_250": -29.9, "mdd_250": -41.3, "vol_250": 30.6, "pos_52w": 66.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 22, "hard": 76, "bondness": 91}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["现金流红利", "亏损或困境", "股息率≥4%", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 47%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 3.2%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.7 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 47%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 3.2%,稳定度 44%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -11.0%(经营现金流/市值 -3.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 3.2%,稳定度 44%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 47%,资本开支/折旧 0.49 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -30%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 31%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 8% / -30%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「普钢」22 家中位:PE 24.6 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 3.5% / 固定资产占比 58% / 分红率 57%。", "新钢股份:PE ;股息率 比行业中位高 2.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 11.0个百分点。"]}}