{"F": {"ts_code": "600779.SH", "name": "水井坊", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "白酒Ⅱ", "sw3": "白酒Ⅲ", "ind": "白酒Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19961206", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 27.19, "pe_ttm": 45.0463, "pb": 2.6597, "dv_ttm": 0.9323, "total_mv": 1325521.2008, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [84.2, 84.5, 84.5, 83.2, 82.8, 79.8], "rev_series": [30.1, 46.3, 46.7, 49.5, 52.2, 30.4], "np_series": [7.3, 12.0, 12.2, 12.7, 13.4, 4.1], "roe_series": [34.4, 50.3, 39.9, 32.3, 28.0, 7.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 26.2, "np_ttm": 2.9, "ocf_ttm": -1.9, "fcf_ttm": -2.8, "fcf_yield": -2.1, "ocf_yield": -1.4, "gm_median": 83.2, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": 0.3, "npm_median": 25.7, "roe_median": 32.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 36.1, "fix_assets": 29.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.66, "capex_dep": 0.44, "interest_debt": 12.9, "debt_ebitda": 1.8, "debt_ratio": 39.3, "debt_mv": 9.7, "payout": 35.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -13.4, "np_cagr3": -30.6, "rev_yoy": -27.8, "np_yoy": -105.9, "np_vol": 42.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.2, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": 36.1, "fwd_pe2": 30.7, "fwd_g1": 25.0, "fwd_g2": 17.0, "peg": 2.12, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["高档酒", 31.0], ["高档", 31.0], ["中档酒", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": -26.9, "ret_prev2_year": -7.7, "ret_ytd": -28.8, "ret_pivot": -17.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.5, "ret_60": -3.7, "ret_120": -24.8, "ret_250": -44.2, "mdd_250": -44.8, "vol_250": 34.0, "pos_52w": 56.9}, "S": {"duration": 68, "pricing": 84, "hard": 58, "bondness": 43}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 30 亿,占总资产 36%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 83.2%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.3 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -2.1%,股息率 0.9%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 89%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 36%)和定价权(毛利率 83.2% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.1%(经营现金流/市值 -1.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 83.2%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.3 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 36%,资本开支/折旧 0.44 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 45.0 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -44%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -4% / -25%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「白酒Ⅱ」19 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 3.7% / 毛利率 74.5% / 固定资产占比 27% / 分红率 60%。", "水井坊:PE 比行业中位高 18.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 2.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.0个百分点。"]}}