{"F": {"ts_code": "600777.SH", "name": "新潮能源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "石油石化", "sw2": "油气开采Ⅱ", "sw3": "油气开采Ⅲ", "ind": "油气开采Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19961121", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.04, "pe_ttm": 47.462, "pb": 1.222, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 2747400.3032, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.9, 49.5, 65.5, 54.5, 48.9, 38.8], "rev_series": [41.4, 48.2, 93.6, 88.5, 83.6, 72.7], "np_series": [-26.6, 3.7, 31.3, 26.0, 20.4, 12.1], "roe_series": [-18.6, 3.0, 21.5, 14.0, 9.6, 5.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 64.2, "np_ttm": 5.8, "ocf_ttm": 42.0, "fcf_ttm": 13.5, "fcf_yield": 4.9, "ocf_yield": 15.3, "gm_median": 49.5, "gm_std": 8.7, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": 38.6, "npm_median": 24.3, "roe_median": 9.6, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 2.8, "fix_assets": 9.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.22, "capex_dep": 0.81, "interest_debt": 52.5, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 34.4, "debt_mv": 19.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -8.1, "np_cagr3": -27.2, "rev_yoy": -21.5, "np_yoy": -65.6, "np_vol": 304.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["石油及天然气", 33.0], ["石油及伴生天然气", 33.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 73.0, "ret_prev2_year": -27.5, "ret_ytd": 5.2, "ret_pivot": 125.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.9, "ret_60": -24.3, "ret_120": -18.7, "ret_250": -3.8, "mdd_250": -35.2, "vol_250": 39.6, "pos_52w": 65.6}, "S": {"duration": 69, "pricing": 70, "hard": 4, "bondness": 24}, "label": "轻资产现金牛", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["固定资产占比 3%,毛利率近 5 年中位 49.5%,自由现金流/市值 4.9%:现金机器,久期短。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 49.5%),硬资产占比 3%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "久期短、无杠杆,加息期相对安全;放水期跑不过科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.9%(经营现金流/市值 15.3%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 49.5%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 38.6 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 3%,资本开支/折旧 0.81 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 47.5 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -4%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -24% / -19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「油气开采Ⅱ」4 家中位:PE 30.0 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 50.5% / 固定资产占比 6% / 分红率 29%。", "新潮能源:PE 比行业中位高 17.5倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.3个百分点。"]}}