{"F": {"ts_code": "600765.SH", "name": "中航重机", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "航空装备Ⅱ", "sw3": "航空装备Ⅲ", "ind": "航空装备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19961106", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.71, "pe_ttm": 37.9837, "pb": 1.4459, "dv_ttm": 0.0615, "total_mv": 2128469.5482, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.6, 28.3, 29.2, 31.3, 23.7, 28.0], "rev_series": [67.0, 87.9, 105.7, 105.8, 103.6, 101.1], "np_series": [3.4, 8.9, 12.0, 13.3, 6.4, 6.1], "roe_series": [5.4, 11.1, 12.2, 12.1, 5.0, 4.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 95.3, "np_ttm": 5.6, "ocf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_ttm": -8.9, "fcf_yield": -4.2, "ocf_yield": -0.3, "gm_median": 28.3, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": 2.6, "npm_median": 11.0, "roe_median": 11.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 22.7, "fix_assets": 69.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 1.45, "capex_dep": 1.4, "interest_debt": 35.6, "debt_ebitda": 3.0, "debt_ratio": 45.5, "debt_mv": 16.7, "payout": 28.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -1.5, "np_cagr3": -20.3, "rev_yoy": -10.1, "np_yoy": -9.8, "np_vol": 70.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.6, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 30.5, "fwd_pe2": 25.2, "fwd_g1": 25.0, "fwd_g2": 21.0, "peg": 1.45, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["锻铸分部", 53.0], ["产品", 50.0], ["液压环控分部", 10.0], ["其他分部", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -5.8, "ret_prev2_year": 8.7, "ret_ytd": -28.4, "ret_pivot": -13.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.0, "ret_60": 3.3, "ret_120": -22.5, "ret_250": -21.4, "mdd_250": -41.0, "vol_250": 35.3, "pos_52w": 63.4}, "S": {"duration": 61, "pricing": 55, "hard": 36, "bondness": 39}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 38.0 倍、股息率 0.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 28.3%、固定资产占比 23%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 23%,毛利率近 5 年中位 28.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.2%(经营现金流/市值 -0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 28.3%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 23%,资本开支/折旧 1.40 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 38.0 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -21%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 35%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 3% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航空装备Ⅱ」48 家中位:PE 73.9 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 32.0% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 36%。", "中航重机:PE 比行业中位低 35.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.1个百分点。"]}}