{"F": {"ts_code": "600764.SH", "name": "中国海防", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "航海装备Ⅱ", "sw3": "航海装备Ⅲ", "ind": "航海装备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19961104", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.71, "pe_ttm": 163.4805, "pb": 1.609, "dv_ttm": 0.3741, "total_mv": 1329587.6074, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.9, 35.3, 31.3, 31.5, 28.0, 23.3], "rev_series": [46.7, 48.7, 42.9, 35.9, 31.7, 35.4], "np_series": [7.5, 8.5, 5.8, 3.1, 2.3, 1.2], "roe_series": [13.6, 11.9, 7.7, 3.9, 2.8, 1.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 34.4, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 2.5, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 0.3, "ocf_yield": 1.8, "gm_median": 31.3, "gm_std": 4.0, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -2.7, "npm_median": 9.1, "roe_median": 3.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.9, "fix_assets": 12.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.61, "capex_dep": 1.76, "interest_debt": 7.4, "debt_ebitda": 2.7, "debt_ratio": 26.2, "debt_mv": 5.5, "payout": 40.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -6.2, "np_cagr3": -40.9, "rev_yoy": -7.2, "np_yoy": -41.5, "np_vol": 22.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 61.7, "fwd_pe2": 48.0, "fwd_g1": 165.0, "fwd_g2": 29.0, "peg": 2.13, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["水声电子防务产品", 20.0], ["电子信息产品", 19.0], ["特装电子产品", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": -3.3, "ret_prev2_year": 14.5, "ret_ytd": -31.4, "ret_pivot": -10.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.9, "ret_60": -0.4, "ret_120": -30.0, "ret_250": -49.0, "mdd_250": -52.5, "vol_250": 33.6, "pos_52w": 52.0}, "S": {"duration": 98, "pricing": 52, "hard": 17, "bondness": 44}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 163.5 倍,估值里约 97% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 11%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(3 篇研报)前瞻 PE 61.7 倍,次年 48.0 倍,PEG 2.13。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 31.3%),硬资产占比 11%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.3%(经营现金流/市值 1.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 31.3%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 1.76 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 163.5 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -49%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 52%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / -0% / -30%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航海装备Ⅱ」10 家中位:PE 30.4 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 20.8% / 固定资产占比 13% / 分红率 30%。", "中国海防:PE 比行业中位高 133.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.0个百分点。"]}}