{"F": {"ts_code": "600763.SH", "name": "通策医疗", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗服务", "sw3": "医院", "ind": "医疗服务", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19961030", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 35.51, "pe_ttm": 25.6662, "pb": 3.8154, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1578263.256, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [45.2, 46.1, 40.8, 38.5, 38.5, 38.6], "rev_series": [20.9, 27.8, 27.2, 28.5, 28.7, 29.1], "np_series": [4.9, 7.0, 5.5, 5.0, 5.0, 5.0], "roe_series": [25.0, 27.9, 17.7, 14.1, 12.8, 12.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 30.5, "np_ttm": 6.4, "ocf_ttm": 8.6, "fcf_ttm": 6.4, "fcf_yield": 4.0, "ocf_yield": 5.4, "gm_median": 38.6, "gm_std": 2.9, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -4.4, "npm_median": 20.3, "roe_median": 14.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.6, "fix_assets": 19.5, "goodwill_ratio": 1.2, "pb_calc": 3.82, "capex_dep": 2.69, "interest_debt": 11.6, "debt_ebitda": 1.1, "debt_ratio": 24.4, "debt_mv": 7.4, "payout": 48.0, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 2.3, "np_cagr3": -2.9, "rev_yoy": 4.1, "np_yoy": 32.7, "np_vol": 21.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.9, "consensus_n": 14, "fwd_pe": 26.4, "fwd_pe2": 23.4, "fwd_g1": -3.0, "fwd_g2": 13.0, "peg": 2.03, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["医疗服务", 89.0], ["眼视光", 5.0], ["产品销售", 4.0], ["建筑工程", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": -8.5, "ret_prev2_year": -18.3, "ret_ytd": -11.7, "ret_pivot": -15.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.0, "ret_60": 5.9, "ret_120": -20.1, "ret_250": -24.7, "mdd_250": -35.9, "vol_250": 30.5, "pos_52w": 68.3}, "S": {"duration": 47, "pricing": 56, "hard": 52, "bondness": 38}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 25.7 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 38.6%、固定资产占比 33%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 33%、毛利率 38.6% 两条都占,但所在行业(医药生物)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.0%(经营现金流/市值 5.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 38.6%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 33%,资本开支/折旧 2.69 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 25.7 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -25%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 30%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / 6% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗服务」52 家中位:PE 73.1 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 41.3% / 固定资产占比 19% / 分红率 34%。", "通策医疗:PE 比行业中位低 47.4倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 13.7个百分点。"]}}