{"F": {"ts_code": "600760.SH", "name": "中航沈飞", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "航空装备Ⅱ", "sw3": "航空装备Ⅲ", "ind": "航空装备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19961011", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 48.26, "pe_ttm": 47.9306, "pb": 5.8454, "dv_ttm": 0.8393, "total_mv": 13681369.767, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [9.2, 9.8, 9.9, 10.9, 12.5, 13.7], "rev_series": [273.2, 340.9, 416.0, 462.5, 428.4, 446.6], "np_series": [14.8, 17.0, 23.0, 30.1, 33.9, 35.2], "roe_series": [15.7, 15.7, 19.0, 21.5, 21.1, 17.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 362.2, "np_ttm": 28.5, "ocf_ttm": -48.0, "fcf_ttm": -85.5, "fcf_yield": -6.2, "ocf_yield": -3.5, "gm_median": 10.9, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": 0.7, "npm_median": 6.5, "roe_median": 19.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.7, "fix_assets": 94.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.85, "capex_dep": 3.62, "interest_debt": 0.6, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 63.1, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 32.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 2.4, "np_cagr3": 15.1, "rev_yoy": -57.7, "np_yoy": -58.4, "np_vol": 11.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.1, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": 40.0, "fwd_pe2": 34.2, "fwd_g1": 20.0, "fwd_g2": 17.0, "peg": 2.35, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["航空产品", 49.0], ["其他主营业务", 1.0], ["其他", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 11.7, "ret_prev2_year": 21.8, "ret_ytd": -13.4, "ret_pivot": 28.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 13.4, "ret_60": 16.0, "ret_120": -6.1, "ret_250": -24.3, "mdd_250": -45.6, "vol_250": 34.0, "pos_52w": 67.6}, "S": {"duration": 70, "pricing": 44, "hard": 22, "bondness": 34}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 47.9 倍、股息率 0.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 10.9%、固定资产占比 14%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 14%,毛利率近 5 年中位 10.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -6.2%(经营现金流/市值 -3.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.9%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 3.62 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 47.9 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -24%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 13% / 16% / -6%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航空装备Ⅱ」48 家中位:PE 73.9 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 32.0% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 36%。", "中航沈飞:PE 比行业中位低 26.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 21.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.9个百分点。"]}}