{"F": {"ts_code": "600759.SH", "name": "ST洲际", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "石油石化", "sw2": "油气开采Ⅱ", "sw3": "油气开采Ⅲ", "ind": "油气开采Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19961008", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.53, "pe_ttm": 36.445, "pb": 1.1648, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1049699.3529, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [42.3, 62.2, 67.5, 61.8, 56.2, 54.8], "rev_series": [16.2, 24.5, 28.4, 27.3, 25.5, 21.0], "np_series": [1.7, -9.4, -7.4, 12.7, 4.9, 1.4], "roe_series": [3.3, -19.7, -18.2, 21.6, 5.9, 1.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 24.2, "np_ttm": 2.9, "ocf_ttm": 8.9, "fcf_ttm": 2.9, "fcf_yield": 2.8, "ocf_yield": 8.5, "gm_median": 61.8, "gm_std": 4.6, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": 25.2, "npm_median": 8.9, "roe_median": 1.7, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 9.4, "fix_assets": 13.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.16, "capex_dep": 2.02, "interest_debt": 10.1, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 30.9, "debt_mv": 9.7, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -9.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 29.6, "np_yoy": 288.9, "np_vol": 298.9, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["油气销售", 50.0], ["租赁、服务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 37.4, "ret_prev2_year": -8.1, "ret_ytd": -18.9, "ret_pivot": 25.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.6, "ret_60": -1.9, "ret_120": -64.0, "ret_250": 4.1, "mdd_250": -79.0, "vol_250": 72.1, "pos_52w": 29.1}, "S": {"duration": 60, "pricing": 70, "hard": 15, "bondness": 24}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["商品定价", "近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 2.9 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 36 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 31%,有息负债 10 亿,经营现金流/市值 8.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 61.8%),硬资产占比 9%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.8%(经营现金流/市值 8.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 61.8%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 25.2 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 2.02 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 36.4 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 4%,最大回撤 -79%,年化波动 72%,现价在 52 周高点的 29%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / -2% / -64%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「油气开采Ⅱ」4 家中位:PE 30.0 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 50.5% / 固定资产占比 6% / 分红率 29%。", "ST洲际:PE 比行业中位高 6.4倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 11.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.3个百分点。"]}}