{"F": {"ts_code": "600757.SH", "name": "长江传媒", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "出版", "sw3": "教育出版", "ind": "出版", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19961003", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.33, "pe_ttm": 10.956, "pb": 0.8906, "dv_ttm": 5.5935, "total_mv": 889605.6699, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.0, 34.7, 35.4, 35.5, 34.3, 33.2], "rev_series": [66.8, 60.2, 63.0, 67.6, 70.7, 70.8], "np_series": [8.2, 7.0, 7.2, 10.2, 9.5, 10.1], "roe_series": [10.8, 8.6, 8.7, 11.6, 10.2, 10.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 64.9, "np_ttm": 8.1, "ocf_ttm": 6.9, "fcf_ttm": 5.0, "fcf_yield": 5.6, "ocf_yield": 7.7, "gm_median": 34.7, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": 8.4, "npm_median": 13.4, "roe_median": 10.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.4, "fix_assets": 12.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.89, "capex_dep": 1.32, "interest_debt": 0.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 27.1, "debt_mv": 0.4, "payout": 48.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.0, "np_cagr3": 12.0, "rev_yoy": -16.7, "np_yoy": -29.5, "np_vol": 19.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 54.0, "earn_yield": 9.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 53.0], ["教材教辅", 41.0], ["一般图书", 14.0], ["其他主营业务", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": -3.2, "ret_prev2_year": 40.4, "ret_ytd": -13.5, "ret_pivot": -0.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.4, "ret_60": -3.3, "ret_120": -16.0, "ret_250": -18.8, "mdd_250": -20.7, "vol_250": 22.2, "pos_52w": 80.7}, "S": {"duration": 24, "pricing": 63, "hard": 15, "bondness": 63}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 49%、股息率 5.6%、营收 3 年复合 4.0%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 34.7%),硬资产占比 9%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.6%(经营现金流/市值 7.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.7%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 8.4 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 1.32 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 11.0 倍 粗算,约 54%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -19%,最大回撤 -21%,年化波动 22%,现价在 52 周高点的 81%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -3% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「出版」29 家中位:PE 32.6 / 股息率 2.2% / 毛利率 34.7% / 固定资产占比 10% / 分红率 50%。", "长江传媒:PE 比行业中位低 21.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.4个百分点;毛利率 与行业中位持平;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点。"]}}