{"F": {"ts_code": "600755.SH", "name": "厦门国贸", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "物流", "sw3": "原材料供应链服务", "ind": "物流", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19961003", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.77, "pe_ttm": 29.8402, "pb": 0.6466, "dv_ttm": 3.8226, "total_mv": 1230255.4545, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [1.9, 1.7, 1.8, 1.4, 1.5, 1.5], "rev_series": [3510.9, 4647.6, 5219.2, 4682.5, 3544.4, 3371.2], "np_series": [26.1, 34.1, 35.9, 19.1, 6.3, 5.1], "roe_series": [10.3, 12.3, 12.1, 6.1, 1.9, 1.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3816.6, "np_ttm": 4.1, "ocf_ttm": -282.1, "fcf_ttm": -285.2, "fcf_yield": -231.8, "ocf_yield": -229.3, "gm_median": 1.5, "gm_std": 0.2, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -0.1, "npm_median": 0.4, "roe_median": 6.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 3.4, "fix_assets": 51.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 0.35, "capex_dep": 0.66, "interest_debt": 621.3, "debt_ebitda": 19.6, "debt_ratio": 74.7, "debt_mv": 505.0, "payout": 825.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -13.6, "np_cagr3": -47.8, "rev_yoy": 29.4, "np_yoy": -18.5, "np_vol": 35.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 83.0, "earn_yield": 3.4, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 13.9, "fwd_pe2": 9.7, "fwd_g1": 115.0, "fwd_g2": 43.0, "peg": 0.32, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["供应链管理业务", 50.0], ["其他板块业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 14.4, "ret_prev2_year": 2.9, "ret_ytd": -17.2, "ret_pivot": 10.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.7, "ret_60": 6.9, "ret_120": -8.8, "ret_250": -7.4, "mdd_250": -36.5, "vol_250": 33.1, "pos_52w": 67.9}, "S": {"duration": 53, "pricing": 39, "hard": 5, "bondness": 93}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 825%、股息率 3.8%、营收 3 年复合 -13.6%、有息负债/EBITDA 19.6 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 3%,毛利率近 5 年中位 1.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -231.8%(经营现金流/市值 -229.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 1.5%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 3%,资本开支/折旧 0.66 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 29.8 倍 粗算,约 83%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -7%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 33%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 7% / -9%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「物流」48 家中位:PE 21.4 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 10.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 43%。", "厦门国贸:PE 比行业中位高 8.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 14.2个百分点。"]}}