{"F": {"ts_code": "600754.SH", "name": "锦江酒店", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "社会服务", "sw2": "酒店餐饮", "sw3": "酒店", "ind": "酒店餐饮", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19961011", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.59, "pe_ttm": 18.9524, "pb": 1.3051, "dv_ttm": 2.6097, "total_mv": 2084529.7815, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.7, 34.2, 33.1, 42.0, 39.5, 38.4], "rev_series": [99.0, 113.4, 110.1, 146.5, 140.6, 138.1], "np_series": [1.1, 1.0, 1.1, 10.0, 9.1, 9.3], "roe_series": [0.8, 0.7, 0.7, 6.0, 5.7, 5.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 140.9, "np_ttm": 11.0, "ocf_ttm": 40.7, "fcf_ttm": 19.1, "fcf_yield": 9.1, "ocf_yield": 19.5, "gm_median": 38.4, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": 7.4, "npm_median": 7.2, "roe_median": 5.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.4, "fix_assets": 47.0, "goodwill_ratio": 25.2, "pb_calc": 1.31, "capex_dep": 3.94, "interest_debt": 197.3, "debt_ebitda": 4.7, "debt_ratio": 64.0, "debt_mv": 94.7, "payout": 58.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.9, "np_cagr3": 101.3, "rev_yoy": 4.2, "np_yoy": 47.1, "np_vol": 276.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 74.0, "earn_yield": 5.3, "consensus_n": 20, "fwd_pe": 17.9, "fwd_pe2": 15.2, "fwd_g1": 6.0, "fwd_g2": 18.0, "peg": 0.99, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["有限服务型酒店营运及管理业务", 32.0], ["有限服务型酒店营运及管理业务：持续加盟服务", 13.0], ["有限服务型酒店营运及管理业务：酒店客房", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": -4.7, "ret_prev2_year": -8.5, "ret_ytd": -20.9, "ret_pivot": -11.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.8, "ret_60": 1.6, "ret_120": -27.3, "ret_250": -15.2, "mdd_250": -39.6, "vol_250": 35.5, "pos_52w": 68.3}, "S": {"duration": 38, "pricing": 62, "hard": 17, "bondness": 62}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["商誉占比高", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 47%,PE TTM 19.0 倍 但前瞻 PE 17.9 倍,PEG 0.99。", "自由现金流 19.1 亿(正),次年预期增速 18%(20 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 38.4%),硬资产占比 10%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 9.1%(经营现金流/市值 19.5%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 38.4%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 7.4 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 3.94 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.0 倍 粗算,约 74%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -15%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 2% / -27%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「酒店餐饮」9 家中位:PE 75.3 / 股息率 1.9% / 毛利率 19.3% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 59%。", "锦江酒店:PE 比行业中位低 56.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 19.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 18.0个百分点。"]}}