{"F": {"ts_code": "600753.SH", "name": "ST海钦", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "物流", "sw3": "原材料供应链服务", "ind": "物流", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19960927", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.83, "pe_ttm": 51.3166, "pb": 28.8521, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 249422.6976, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [1.3, 1.4, 1.3, 1.5, 0.4, 4.7], "rev_series": [26.9, 16.1, 18.5, 8.2, 4.1, 17.4], "np_series": [0.2, -0.5, 0.1, -0.5, -2.4, 0.4], "roe_series": [10.0, -21.6, 5.2, -19.9, -207.0, 121.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.1, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_yield": -0.4, "ocf_yield": 3.3, "gm_median": 1.4, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": -0.05, "gm_chg_2022": 0.1, "npm_median": -3.1, "roe_median": -19.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 26.3, "fix_assets": 0.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 28.85, "capex_dep": 7.58, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 49.0, "debt_mv": 0.4, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -1.9, "np_cagr3": 36.2, "rev_yoy": 24.8, "np_yoy": 141.6, "np_vol": 252.5, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 1.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["贸易业务等", 41.0], ["大宗商品供应链", 41.0], ["聚丙烯改性料", 18.0], ["充电服务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 35.8, "ret_prev2_year": -40.0, "ret_ytd": 27.6, "ret_pivot": 93.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.7, "ret_60": -1.3, "ret_120": -14.3, "ret_250": 58.1, "mdd_250": -35.9, "vol_250": 38.6, "pos_52w": 75.1}, "S": {"duration": 72, "pricing": 8, "hard": 42, "bondness": 20}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 51 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 49%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 3.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 26%,毛利率近 5 年中位 1.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.4%(经营现金流/市值 3.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 1.4%,稳定度 -5%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 26%,资本开支/折旧 7.58 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 51.3 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 58%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / -1% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「物流」48 家中位:PE 21.4 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 10.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 43%。", "ST海钦:PE 比行业中位高 29.9倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.7个百分点。"]}}