{"F": {"ts_code": "600748.SH", "name": "上实发展", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "房地产", "sw2": "房地产开发", "sw3": "住宅开发", "ind": "房地产开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19960925", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.86, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 0.6987, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 712001.2794, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [36.9, 49.1, 21.4, 39.4, 26.7, 29.6], "rev_series": [65.3, 100.6, 52.5, 98.6, 24.9, 33.9], "np_series": [5.7, 1.8, 1.2, 1.3, -2.9, -6.2], "roe_series": [5.3, 1.7, 1.2, 1.3, -2.8, -5.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 31.7, "np_ttm": -1.2, "ocf_ttm": 17.4, "fcf_ttm": 17.3, "fcf_yield": 24.3, "ocf_yield": 24.4, "gm_median": 29.6, "gm_std": 9.9, "gm_stab": 0.67, "gm_chg_2022": -15.4, "npm_median": 0.8, "roe_median": 1.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.3, "fix_assets": 18.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 0.7, "capex_dep": 0.02, "interest_debt": 139.3, "debt_ebitda": 25.3, "debt_ratio": 59.2, "debt_mv": 195.7, "payout": 30.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -13.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -17.6, "np_yoy": 65.9, "np_vol": 116.1, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["物业管理服务", 49.0], ["房地产租赁", 13.0], ["房产租赁", 13.0], ["房地产销售", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 50.6, "ret_prev2_year": 3.8, "ret_ytd": -28.8, "ret_pivot": 47.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.8, "ret_60": -4.0, "ret_120": -23.3, "ret_250": -2.8, "mdd_250": -56.5, "vol_250": 52.3, "pos_52w": 49.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 42, "hard": 10, "bondness": 46}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 59%,有息负债 139 亿,经营现金流/市值 24.4%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 6%,毛利率近 5 年中位 29.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 24.3%(经营现金流/市值 24.4%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.6%,稳定度 67%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -15.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 0.02 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -3%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -4% / -23%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「房地产开发」83 家中位:PE 26.0 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 21.1% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 36%。", "上实发展:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.3个百分点。"]}}