{"F": {"ts_code": "600744.SH", "name": "华银电力", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "火力发电", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19960905", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.21, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 10.3896, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1261328.1903, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [10.5, -12.3, -0.3, 4.8, 5.0, 11.1], "rev_series": [82.6, 96.0, 97.0, 99.4, 83.5, 80.6], "np_series": [0.3, -22.7, 0.3, -1.9, -1.1, 0.8], "roe_series": [1.1, -127.1, 2.8, -12.1, -6.9, 5.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 77.5, "np_ttm": -0.7, "ocf_ttm": 33.6, "fcf_ttm": -13.9, "fcf_yield": -11.0, "ocf_yield": 26.7, "gm_median": 4.8, "gm_std": 7.9, "gm_stab": -0.64, "gm_chg_2022": -10.8, "npm_median": -1.2, "roe_median": -6.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 70.7, "fix_assets": 217.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 7.31, "capex_dep": 3.42, "interest_debt": 250.0, "debt_ebitda": 12.6, "debt_ratio": 92.8, "debt_mv": 198.2, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -6.0, "np_cagr3": 44.5, "rev_yoy": -7.7, "np_yoy": -75.0, "np_vol": 2632.9, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["电力销售", 33.0], ["电力产品", 33.0], ["其他主营业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 89.1, "ret_prev2_year": -4.0, "ret_ytd": 5.6, "ret_pivot": 121.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -21.2, "ret_60": -13.5, "ret_120": -25.6, "ret_250": -20.8, "mdd_250": -43.1, "vol_250": 57.8, "pos_52w": 66.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 6, "hard": 100, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.7 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 93%,有息负债 250 亿,经营现金流/市值 26.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 71%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 4.8%,稳定度 -64%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -11.0%(经营现金流/市值 26.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 4.8%,稳定度 -64%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 71%,资本开支/折旧 3.42 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -21%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -21% / -14% / -26%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "华银电力:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 17.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.0个百分点。"]}}