{"F": {"ts_code": "600740.SH", "name": "山西焦化", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "煤炭", "sw2": "焦炭Ⅱ", "sw3": "焦炭Ⅲ", "ind": "焦炭Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19960808", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.88, "pe_ttm": 68.023, "pb": 0.6565, "dv_ttm": 0.6443, "total_mv": 994103.0256, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [5.7, 6.6, -1.4, -10.9, -16.4, -10.3], "rev_series": [71.0, 112.3, 120.7, 87.5, 75.1, 61.8], "np_series": [11.0, 12.6, 25.8, 12.8, 2.6, 0.8], "roe_series": [10.3, 10.8, 19.4, 8.6, 1.7, 0.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 60.6, "np_ttm": 1.5, "ocf_ttm": -3.2, "fcf_ttm": -3.4, "fcf_yield": -3.4, "ocf_yield": -3.3, "gm_median": -10.3, "gm_std": 8.1, "gm_stab": 1.79, "gm_chg_2022": -7.1, "npm_median": 9.2, "roe_median": 8.6, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 17.9, "fix_assets": 45.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.66, "capex_dep": 0.03, "interest_debt": 82.3, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 39.8, "debt_mv": 82.7, "payout": 19.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -20.0, "np_cagr3": -68.2, "rev_yoy": -3.8, "np_yoy": 81.2, "np_vol": 68.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 16.2, "fwd_pe2": 15.2, "fwd_g1": 321.0, "fwd_g2": 6.0, "peg": 2.7, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["焦炭产品", 21.0], ["焦炭", 21.0], ["化工产品", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": -6.3, "ret_prev2_year": -19.4, "ret_ytd": 3.9, "ret_pivot": 11.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.6, "ret_60": 6.7, "ret_120": -22.2, "ret_250": -4.3, "mdd_250": -38.0, "vol_250": 41.6, "pos_52w": 75.4}, "S": {"duration": 82, "pricing": 70, "hard": 29, "bondness": 34}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 68.0 倍、股息率 0.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 -10.3%、固定资产占比 18%、资产负债率 40%:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 -10.3%),硬资产占比 18%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.4%(经营现金流/市值 -3.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 -10.3%,稳定度 179%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 0.03 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 68.0 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -4%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 7% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「焦炭Ⅱ」7 家中位:PE 68.0 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 2.6% / 固定资产占比 58% / 分红率 33%。", "山西焦化:PE 与行业中位持平;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 40.5个百分点。"]}}