{"F": {"ts_code": "600737.SH", "name": "中粮糖业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "农产品加工", "sw3": "其他农产品加工", "ind": "农产品加工", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19960731", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.61, "pe_ttm": 29.9517, "pb": 2.9801, "dv_ttm": 2.1781, "total_mv": 3338742.0402, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.1, 10.4, 9.2, 14.1, 12.5, 11.4], "rev_series": [211.3, 251.6, 264.4, 331.1, 325.0, 265.1], "np_series": [5.3, 5.2, 7.4, 20.7, 17.1, 9.5], "roe_series": [6.2, 5.5, 7.2, 18.7, 14.8, 8.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 240.2, "np_ttm": 11.1, "ocf_ttm": 14.6, "fcf_ttm": 9.5, "fcf_yield": 2.8, "ocf_yield": 4.4, "gm_median": 11.4, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -3.9, "npm_median": 3.6, "roe_median": 8.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 25.1, "fix_assets": 47.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.98, "capex_dep": 1.3, "interest_debt": 30.7, "debt_ebitda": 1.5, "debt_ratio": 39.1, "debt_mv": 9.2, "payout": 76.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 0.1, "np_cagr3": 8.6, "rev_yoy": -21.2, "np_yoy": 36.7, "np_vol": 78.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 83.0, "earn_yield": 3.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["食糖贸易", 30.0], ["食糖类商品", 30.0], ["番茄类商品", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 78.3, "ret_prev2_year": 42.0, "ret_ytd": -7.5, "ret_pivot": 101.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 15.4, "ret_60": 26.1, "ret_120": 1.4, "ret_250": 0.2, "mdd_250": -47.5, "vol_250": 52.1, "pos_52w": 81.9}, "S": {"duration": 53, "pricing": 40, "hard": 40, "bondness": 64}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 30.0 倍、股息率 2.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 11.4%、固定资产占比 25%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 25%,毛利率近 5 年中位 11.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.8%(经营现金流/市值 4.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.4%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 25%,资本开支/折旧 1.30 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 30.0 倍 粗算,约 83%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 0%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 82%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 15% / 26% / 1%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农产品加工」26 家中位:PE 39.2 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 11.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 44%。", "中粮糖业:PE 比行业中位低 9.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.4个百分点。"]}}