{"F": {"ts_code": "600733.SH", "name": "北汽蓝谷", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "乘用车", "sw3": "电动乘用车", "ind": "乘用车", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19960816", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.93, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 6.3359, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 3139006.922, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [-28.8, 0.8, -5.2, -5.7, -11.6, 0.4], "rev_series": [52.7, 87.0, 95.1, 143.2, 145.1, 279.4], "np_series": [-64.8, -52.4, -54.6, -54.0, -69.5, -45.6], "roe_series": [-45.8, -47.6, -65.1, -90.3, -117.7, -141.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 300.2, "np_ttm": -41.9, "ocf_ttm": -20.7, "fcf_ttm": -48.4, "fcf_yield": -15.4, "ocf_yield": -6.6, "gm_median": -5.2, "gm_std": 4.6, "gm_stab": 1.88, "gm_chg_2022": 23.6, "npm_median": -47.4, "roe_median": -90.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 21.3, "fix_assets": 83.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.34, "capex_dep": 4.72, "interest_debt": 47.6, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 81.7, "debt_mv": 15.2, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 43.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 21.9, "np_yoy": 16.0, "np_vol": 21.4, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 10, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": 55.4, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["汽车整车", 47.0], ["配件收入及其他", 2.0], ["配件及其他", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 0.4, "ret_prev2_year": 30.5, "ret_ytd": -38.6, "ret_pivot": -24.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -10.4, "ret_60": -13.5, "ret_120": -36.6, "ret_250": -46.1, "mdd_250": -49.8, "vol_250": 35.4, "pos_52w": 54.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 46, "hard": 34, "bondness": 3}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -41.9 亿,近 5 年亏损 5 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 82%,有息负债 48 亿,经营现金流/市值 -6.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 21%,毛利率近 5 年中位 -5.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -15.4%(经营现金流/市值 -6.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 -5.2%,稳定度 188%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 23.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 21%,资本开支/折旧 4.72 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -46%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 35%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / -14% / -37%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「乘用车」8 家中位:PE 27.1 / 股息率 2.3% / 毛利率 10.6% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 38%。", "北汽蓝谷:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 15.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.5个百分点。"]}}