{"F": {"ts_code": "600731.SH", "name": "湖南海利", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "农化制品", "sw3": "农药", "ind": "农化制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19960802", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.84, "pe_ttm": 18.0606, "pb": 0.9921, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 323449.86, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.8, 22.8, 25.1, 25.0, 28.1, 33.2], "rev_series": [20.3, 27.0, 31.3, 21.6, 24.7, 18.1], "np_series": [2.9, 2.7, 3.5, 2.7, 2.7, 2.4], "roe_series": [21.9, 16.9, 18.8, 10.8, 8.6, 7.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 18.5, "np_ttm": 1.8, "ocf_ttm": 3.4, "fcf_ttm": 2.4, "fcf_yield": 7.4, "ocf_yield": 10.5, "gm_median": 25.1, "gm_std": 3.6, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -5.7, "npm_median": 12.6, "roe_median": 10.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 39.8, "fix_assets": 18.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.99, "capex_dep": 0.77, "interest_debt": 5.1, "debt_ebitda": 1.4, "debt_ratio": 25.0, "debt_mv": 15.9, "payout": 41.2, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -16.7, "np_cagr3": -11.6, "rev_yoy": 4.0, "np_yoy": -45.0, "np_vol": 18.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 72.0, "earn_yield": 5.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["商品销售收入", 32.0], ["农药产品", 28.0], ["锂电电池", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 23.1, "ret_prev2_year": -10.9, "ret_ytd": -13.7, "ret_pivot": 27.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.9, "ret_60": 8.1, "ret_120": -25.7, "ret_250": -28.3, "mdd_250": -36.0, "vol_250": 30.4, "pos_52w": 73.0}, "S": {"duration": 36, "pricing": 46, "hard": 64, "bondness": 39}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 18.1 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 25.1%、固定资产占比 40%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 40%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 25.1%,稳定度 86%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.4%(经营现金流/市值 10.5%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.1%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 40%,资本开支/折旧 0.77 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 18.1 倍 粗算,约 72%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 30%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 8% / -26%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农化制品」62 家中位:PE 20.8 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 19.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 45%。", "湖南海利:PE 比行业中位低 2.7倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.2个百分点。"]}}