{"F": {"ts_code": "600730.SH", "name": "*ST高科", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "社会服务", "sw2": "教育", "sw3": "培训教育", "ind": "教育", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19960726", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.46, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.3233, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 554976.576, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [89.2, 81.5, 67.9, 74.0, 77.2, 65.9], "rev_series": [1.0, 1.0, 1.2, 1.2, 1.5, 0.8], "np_series": [0.2, 0.1, -0.9, -0.0, 0.5, -1.3], "roe_series": [1.0, 0.7, -4.8, -0.2, 2.7, -7.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 0.6, "np_ttm": -1.3, "ocf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_yield": -0.7, "ocf_yield": -0.6, "gm_median": 74.0, "gm_std": 5.8, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -21.4, "npm_median": -0.3, "roe_median": -0.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.6, "fix_assets": 0.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.32, "capex_dep": 7.87, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 12.0, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": 12.0, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -14.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -34.4, "np_yoy": -101.1, "np_vol": 916.7, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["教育", 36.0], ["不动产运营", 13.0], ["其他", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 81.1, "ret_prev2_year": 7.1, "ret_ytd": -13.5, "ret_pivot": 117.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -19.8, "ret_60": -27.1, "ret_120": 2.3, "ret_250": 1.2, "mdd_250": -50.8, "vol_250": 67.7, "pos_52w": 59.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 73, "hard": 1, "bondness": 27}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 12%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 74.0%),硬资产占比 1%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.7%(经营现金流/市值 -0.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 74.0%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -21.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 1%,资本开支/折旧 7.87 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 1%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 68%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -20% / -27% / 2%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「教育」17 家中位:PE 96.5 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 43.0% / 固定资产占比 6% / 分红率 49%。", "*ST高科:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 31.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.3个百分点。"]}}