{"F": {"ts_code": "600727.SH", "name": "鲁北化工", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学原料", "sw3": "钛白粉", "ind": "化学原料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19960702", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.72, "pe_ttm": 30.9882, "pb": 1.219, "dv_ttm": 0.6477, "total_mv": 408066.1532, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.8, 21.6, 11.6, 8.0, 12.1, 8.7], "rev_series": [29.3, 45.3, 49.0, 49.9, 57.5, 50.9], "np_series": [2.3, 4.9, -0.9, 1.0, 2.6, 0.4], "roe_series": [11.3, 17.3, -3.0, 3.4, 8.5, 1.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 55.4, "np_ttm": 1.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_ttm": -5.6, "fcf_yield": -13.6, "ocf_yield": 0.2, "gm_median": 11.6, "gm_std": 4.9, "gm_stab": 0.58, "gm_chg_2022": -7.2, "npm_median": 3.1, "roe_median": 3.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 41.8, "fix_assets": 39.0, "goodwill_ratio": 1.9, "pb_calc": 1.22, "capex_dep": 2.27, "interest_debt": 37.6, "debt_ebitda": 7.1, "debt_ratio": 60.7, "debt_mv": 92.3, "payout": 52.6, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 1.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 17.6, "np_yoy": 119.5, "np_vol": 133.4, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.2, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 12.1, "fwd_pe2": 10.4, "fwd_g1": 157.0, "fwd_g2": 16.0, "peg": 0.76, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["钛白粉", 56.0], ["甲烷氯化物", 10.0], ["硫酸亚铁", 7.0], ["化肥水泥", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": -6.5, "ret_prev2_year": 14.7, "ret_ytd": 13.7, "ret_pivot": 30.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.5, "ret_60": 2.3, "ret_120": -6.1, "ret_250": -5.6, "mdd_250": -26.5, "vol_250": 38.1, "pos_52w": 87.8}, "S": {"duration": 54, "pricing": 30, "hard": 67, "bondness": 56}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 42%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 11.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.2 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 7.1 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 42%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 11.6%,稳定度 58%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -13.6%(经营现金流/市值 0.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.6%,稳定度 58%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 42%,资本开支/折旧 2.27 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 31.0 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -6%,最大回撤 -26%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 88%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 2% / -6%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学原料」59 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 16.8% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 40%。", "鲁北化工:PE 比行业中位低 4.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.6个百分点。"]}}