{"F": {"ts_code": "600726.SH", "name": "华电能源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "火力发电", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19960701", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.35, "pe_ttm": 126.837, "pb": 8.0331, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 4230424.867, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [-1.3, -16.4, 20.3, 18.0, 18.7, 17.2], "rev_series": [106.7, 98.0, 188.8, 188.4, 181.5, 166.6], "np_series": [-11.1, -29.4, -10.2, -0.9, 1.7, 2.0], "roe_series": [-97.7, null, -154.5, -2.6, 4.6, 5.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 164.1, "np_ttm": 3.3, "ocf_ttm": 32.8, "fcf_ttm": -6.3, "fcf_yield": -1.5, "ocf_yield": 7.8, "gm_median": 18.0, "gm_std": 14.0, "gm_stab": 0.22, "gm_chg_2022": 21.6, "npm_median": 4.8, "roe_median": 1.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 52.3, "fix_assets": 178.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.8, "pb_calc": 8.03, "capex_dep": 2.68, "interest_debt": 210.9, "debt_ebitda": 5.6, "debt_ratio": 77.8, "debt_mv": 49.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -4.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -3.0, "np_yoy": 29.2, "np_vol": 145.7, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["电力销售", 21.0], ["售电收入", 21.0], ["煤炭销售", 17.0], ["煤炭", 17.0]], "ret_prev_year": 4.4, "ret_prev2_year": 5.0, "ret_ytd": 123.8, "ret_pivot": 168.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -15.3, "ret_60": -34.1, "ret_120": 25.3, "ret_250": 103.4, "mdd_250": -49.0, "vol_250": 67.2, "pos_52w": 51.5}, "S": {"duration": 96, "pricing": 28, "hard": 84, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 3.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 127 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 78%,有息负债 211 亿,经营现金流/市值 7.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 52%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 18.0%,稳定度 22%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.5%(经营现金流/市值 7.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.0%,稳定度 22%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 21.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 52%,资本开支/折旧 2.68 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 126.8 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 103%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 67%,现价在 52 周高点的 52%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -15% / -34% / 25%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "华电能源:PE 比行业中位高 99.0倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.4个百分点。"]}}