{"F": {"ts_code": "600721.SH", "name": "百花医药", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗服务", "sw3": "医疗研发外包", "ind": "医疗服务", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19960626", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.94, "pe_ttm": 153.2297, "pb": 5.7346, "dv_ttm": 0.335, "total_mv": 459149.8344, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [-162.0, 40.0, 39.9, 49.0, 51.2, 45.5], "rev_series": [0.8, 2.8, 3.5, 3.7, 3.9, 3.9], "np_series": [-3.2, 0.6, -0.3, 0.1, 0.4, 0.4], "roe_series": [-40.6, 9.2, -5.2, 1.9, 5.7, 5.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.4, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_yield": 0.5, "ocf_yield": 0.7, "gm_median": 45.5, "gm_std": 4.6, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": 201.9, "npm_median": 10.5, "roe_median": 5.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.7, "fix_assets": 1.4, "goodwill_ratio": 1.1, "pb_calc": 5.73, "capex_dep": 0.68, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 24.8, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 37.8, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 3.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -22.1, "np_yoy": -42.1, "np_vol": 131.4, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 39.0], ["医药研发及一致性评价", 19.0], ["医药研发", 19.0], ["临床试验", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": 86.3, "ret_prev2_year": -14.9, "ret_ytd": -2.1, "ret_pivot": 92.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 13.3, "ret_60": 51.7, "ret_120": 30.1, "ret_250": 28.1, "mdd_250": -46.7, "vol_250": 63.0, "pos_52w": 71.6}, "S": {"duration": 98, "pricing": 66, "hard": 20, "bondness": 35}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 153.2 倍,估值里约 97% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 13%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 45.5%),硬资产占比 13%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.5%(经营现金流/市值 0.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 45.5%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 201.9 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 0.68 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 153.2 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 28%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 63%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 13% / 52% / 30%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗服务」52 家中位:PE 73.1 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 41.3% / 固定资产占比 19% / 分红率 34%。", "百花医药:PE 比行业中位高 80.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.2个百分点。"]}}