{"F": {"ts_code": "600719.SH", "name": "大连热电", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "热力服务", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19960716", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.45, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 8.3896, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 301426.702, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.2, 1.6, -4.8, -14.9, -2.2, 10.9], "rev_series": [6.7, 6.6, 8.1, 6.3, 6.3, 6.0], "np_series": [0.1, -1.4, -1.6, 1.1, -1.5, -0.9], "roe_series": [1.3, -21.4, -30.2, 21.3, -30.7, -26.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.1, "np_ttm": -0.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_yield": -2.2, "ocf_yield": 0.9, "gm_median": -2.2, "gm_std": 8.4, "gm_stab": 4.83, "gm_chg_2022": -25.0, "npm_median": -19.4, "roe_median": -26.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 82.5, "fix_assets": 18.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 8.39, "capex_dep": 0.59, "interest_debt": 17.0, "debt_ebitda": 7.9, "debt_ratio": 84.1, "debt_mv": 56.3, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -9.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 0.2, "np_yoy": 223.2, "np_vol": 642.1, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["热力收入", 46.0], ["热力", 46.0], ["电力收入", 4.0], ["电力", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": -8.6, "ret_prev2_year": -12.1, "ret_ytd": 14.3, "ret_pivot": 21.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.6, "ret_60": -14.8, "ret_120": 10.2, "ret_250": 15.1, "mdd_250": -37.0, "vol_250": 48.5, "pos_52w": 68.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 39, "hard": 100, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 84%,有息负债 17 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.9%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 82%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 -2.2%,稳定度 483%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.2%(经营现金流/市值 0.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 -2.2%,稳定度 483%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -25.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 82%,资本开支/折旧 0.59 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 15%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -15% / 10%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "大连热电:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 24.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 21.8个百分点。"]}}