{"F": {"ts_code": "600711.SH", "name": "盛屯矿业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铜", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19960531", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.52, "pe_ttm": 13.1245, "pb": 1.9917, "dv_ttm": 0.8516, "total_mv": 3560384.5632, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [4.1, 9.7, 11.3, 11.0, 19.5, 19.1], "rev_series": [392.4, 452.4, 253.6, 244.6, 257.3, 300.0], "np_series": [0.6, 10.3, -1.0, 2.6, 20.1, 19.6], "roe_series": [0.6, 9.1, -0.7, 1.9, 13.7, 12.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 354.6, "np_ttm": 27.1, "ocf_ttm": 31.1, "fcf_ttm": 3.5, "fcf_yield": 1.0, "ocf_yield": 8.7, "gm_median": 11.3, "gm_std": 4.3, "gm_stab": 0.62, "gm_chg_2022": 7.1, "npm_median": 5.6, "roe_median": 9.1, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 28.0, "fix_assets": 141.9, "goodwill_ratio": 1.8, "pb_calc": 1.99, "capex_dep": 2.06, "interest_debt": 192.2, "debt_ebitda": 2.9, "debt_ratio": 61.7, "debt_mv": 54.0, "payout": 15.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 5.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 39.6, "np_yoy": 71.4, "np_vol": 4928.6, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 62.0, "earn_yield": 7.6, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 10.2, "fwd_pe2": 7.8, "fwd_g1": 29.0, "fwd_g2": 31.0, "peg": 0.33, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["能源金属业务", 38.0], ["能源金属", 38.0], ["基本金属业务", 11.0], ["基本金属", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 220.1, "ret_prev2_year": 14.7, "ret_ytd": -23.8, "ret_pivot": 242.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.7, "ret_60": -2.6, "ret_120": -16.1, "ret_250": 38.8, "mdd_250": -50.0, "vol_250": 61.3, "pos_52w": 63.3}, "S": {"duration": 28, "pricing": 70, "hard": 45, "bondness": 34}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["商品定价", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 71%,PE TTM 13.1 倍 但前瞻 PE 10.2 倍,PEG 0.33。", "自由现金流 3.5 亿(正),次年预期增速 31%(4 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 11.3%),硬资产占比 28%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.0%(经营现金流/市值 8.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.3%,稳定度 62%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 7.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 2.06 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.1 倍 粗算,约 62%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 39%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 61%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -3% / -16%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "盛屯矿业:PE 比行业中位低 7.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点。"]}}