{"F": {"ts_code": "600707.SH", "name": "彩虹股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "光学光电子", "sw3": "面板", "ind": "光学光电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19960520", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.47, "pe_ttm": 1346.4644, "pb": 1.4044, "dv_ttm": 0.8264, "total_mv": 3039366.0759, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [11.8, 28.8, -22.0, 14.9, 19.4, 16.3], "rev_series": [104.5, 151.7, 89.7, 114.7, 116.6, 112.9], "np_series": [-8.1, 26.7, -26.6, 6.6, 12.4, 3.7], "roe_series": [-4.0, 12.7, -12.7, 3.3, 5.9, 1.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 111.9, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 40.4, "fcf_ttm": 11.5, "fcf_yield": 3.8, "ocf_yield": 13.3, "gm_median": 16.3, "gm_std": 17.4, "gm_stab": -0.07, "gm_chg_2022": -33.7, "npm_median": 5.8, "roe_median": 3.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 56.9, "fix_assets": 243.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 1.4, "capex_dep": 0.93, "interest_debt": 112.4, "debt_ebitda": 2.9, "debt_ratio": 37.5, "debt_mv": 37.0, "payout": 67.3, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 8.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -1.8, "np_yoy": -77.9, "np_vol": 212.4, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100.0, "earn_yield": 0.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["液晶面板", 43.0], ["基板玻璃", 6.0], ["租赁收入", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -21.2, "ret_prev2_year": 22.0, "ret_ytd": 31.9, "ret_pivot": 44.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -10.7, "ret_60": -19.6, "ret_120": 32.8, "ret_250": 29.7, "mdd_250": -56.2, "vol_250": 64.4, "pos_52w": 48.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 12, "hard": 91, "bondness": 49}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 57%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 16.3%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -33.7 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.9 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 57%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 16.3%,稳定度 -7%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.8%(经营现金流/市值 13.3%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.3%,稳定度 -7%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -33.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 57%,资本开支/折旧 0.93 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 1346.5 倍 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 30%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 64%,现价在 52 周高点的 48%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -11% / -20% / 33%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光学光电子」95 家中位:PE 61.6 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 19.3% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 43%。", "彩虹股份:PE 比行业中位高 1284.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 25.5个百分点。"]}}