{"F": {"ts_code": "600704.SH", "name": "物产中大", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "物流", "sw3": "原材料供应链服务", "ind": "物流", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19960606", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.95, "pe_ttm": 7.1736, "pb": 0.6107, "dv_ttm": 4.42, "total_mv": 2559734.0505, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [3.0, 2.5, 2.4, 2.6, 2.2, 2.3], "rev_series": [4035.7, 5619.9, 5765.5, 5801.6, 5995.2, 5964.6], "np_series": [27.5, 39.8, 39.1, 36.2, 30.8, 36.2], "roe_series": [10.6, 13.9, 12.2, 10.3, 7.8, 8.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5978.0, "np_ttm": 35.7, "ocf_ttm": -76.8, "fcf_ttm": -103.7, "fcf_yield": -40.5, "ocf_yield": -30.0, "gm_median": 2.4, "gm_std": 0.2, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -0.6, "npm_median": 1.0, "roe_median": 10.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 7.7, "fix_assets": 182.7, "goodwill_ratio": 1.7, "pb_calc": 0.53, "capex_dep": 2.07, "interest_debt": 798.1, "debt_ebitda": 8.2, "debt_ratio": 72.5, "debt_mv": 311.8, "payout": 31.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 1.1, "np_cagr3": -2.5, "rev_yoy": 0.5, "np_yoy": -2.7, "np_vol": 21.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 30.0, "earn_yield": 13.9, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 6.7, "fwd_pe2": 6.2, "fwd_g1": 7.0, "fwd_g2": 9.0, "peg": 0.74, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["供应链集成服务", 46.0], ["高端实业", 3.0], ["金融服务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 15.6, "ret_prev2_year": 22.2, "ret_ytd": -7.5, "ret_pivot": 34.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.4, "ret_60": 8.8, "ret_120": -10.0, "ret_250": -10.6, "mdd_250": -25.7, "vol_250": 24.5, "pos_52w": 80.9}, "S": {"duration": 16, "pricing": 41, "hard": 12, "bondness": 72}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 7.2 倍、股息率 4.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 2.4%、固定资产占比 8%、有息负债/EBITDA 8.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 8%,毛利率近 5 年中位 2.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -40.5%(经营现金流/市值 -30.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 2.4%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 2.07 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 7.2 倍 粗算,约 30%(1 − 5/PE)。<40%,估值靠当期。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -11%,最大回撤 -26%,年化波动 24%,现价在 52 周高点的 81%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / 9% / -10%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「物流」48 家中位:PE 21.4 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 10.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 43%。", "物产中大:PE 比行业中位低 14.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 9.9个百分点。"]}}