{"F": {"ts_code": "600702.SH", "name": "舍得酒业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "白酒Ⅱ", "sw3": "白酒Ⅲ", "ind": "白酒Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19960524", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 35.66, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.6999, "dv_ttm": 0.8601, "total_mv": 1184236.1494, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [75.9, 77.8, 77.7, 74.5, 65.5, 62.0], "rev_series": [27.0, 49.7, 60.6, 70.8, 53.6, 44.2], "np_series": [5.8, 12.5, 16.9, 17.7, 3.5, 2.2], "roe_series": [17.6, 29.7, 30.3, 26.1, 4.9, 3.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 40.0, "np_ttm": -0.8, "ocf_ttm": -6.2, "fcf_ttm": -10.8, "fcf_yield": -9.1, "ocf_yield": -5.2, "gm_median": 74.5, "gm_std": 6.5, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": 1.9, "npm_median": 25.0, "roe_median": 26.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 28.6, "fix_assets": 37.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.7, "capex_dep": 1.77, "interest_debt": 27.9, "debt_ebitda": 9.6, "debt_ratio": 44.4, "debt_mv": 23.6, "payout": 45.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -10.0, "np_cagr3": -49.0, "rev_yoy": -15.3, "np_yoy": -67.3, "np_vol": 66.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 27, "fwd_pe": 48.4, "fwd_pe2": 37.7, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 28.0, "peg": 1.73, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["酒类：中高档酒", 36.0], ["中高档酒", 36.0], ["酒类：普通酒", 12.0], ["普通酒", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": -14.5, "ret_prev2_year": -30.5, "ret_ytd": -36.1, "ret_pivot": -14.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.1, "ret_60": -5.9, "ret_120": -28.6, "ret_250": -46.5, "mdd_250": -52.8, "vol_250": 38.9, "pos_52w": 51.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 78, "hard": 46, "bondness": 56}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.8 亿,近 5 年亏损 0 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 44%,有息负债 28 亿,经营现金流/市值 -5.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 74.5%),硬资产占比 29%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -9.1%(经营现金流/市值 -5.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 74.5%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.9 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 29%,资本开支/折旧 1.77 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -46%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 52%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -6% / -29%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「白酒Ⅱ」19 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 3.7% / 毛利率 74.5% / 固定资产占比 27% / 分红率 60%。", "舍得酒业:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 2.8个百分点;毛利率 与行业中位持平;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.5个百分点。"]}}