{"F": {"ts_code": "600698.SH", "name": "湖南天雁", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19931206", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.91, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 11.4137, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 845292.4207, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [15.3, 16.3, 13.6, 11.1, 7.6, 8.9], "rev_series": [6.4, 5.7, 3.3, 4.9, 4.3, 5.2], "np_series": [0.1, 0.1, -0.3, 0.0, 0.0, -0.3], "roe_series": [1.3, 1.1, -3.6, 0.4, 0.5, -4.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.9, "np_ttm": -0.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_yield": -0.4, "ocf_yield": 0.7, "gm_median": 11.1, "gm_std": 3.1, "gm_stab": 0.72, "gm_chg_2022": -1.7, "npm_median": 0.6, "roe_median": 0.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 24.2, "fix_assets": 3.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 11.41, "capex_dep": 3.24, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 40.6, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 16.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 29.6, "np_yoy": 75.4, "np_vol": 366.1, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["增压器", 80.0], ["气门", 8.0], ["其他业务", 4.0], ["其他主营业务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 100.0, "ret_prev2_year": -19.6, "ret_ytd": -12.5, "ret_pivot": 73.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 20.6, "ret_60": 10.8, "ret_120": 2.6, "ret_250": -39.8, "mdd_250": -57.2, "vol_250": 48.4, "pos_52w": 60.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 37, "hard": 39, "bondness": 5}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 41%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 24%,毛利率近 5 年中位 11.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.4%(经营现金流/市值 0.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.1%,稳定度 72%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 24%,资本开支/折旧 3.24 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -40%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 21% / 11% / 3%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "湖南天雁:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.3个百分点。"]}}