{"F": {"ts_code": "600693.SH", "name": "东百集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "商贸零售", "sw2": "一般零售", "sw3": "百货", "ind": "一般零售", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19931122", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.93, "pe_ttm": 194.2664, "pb": 2.6384, "dv_ttm": 0.8234, "total_mv": 950742.0059, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [44.2, 51.8, 51.6, 59.2, 58.0, 58.6], "rev_series": [18.2, 18.9, 16.7, 18.9, 18.2, 18.5], "np_series": [2.0, 1.3, 0.2, 0.4, 0.4, 0.5], "roe_series": [6.7, 3.5, 0.6, 1.0, 1.2, 1.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 18.6, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 7.5, "fcf_ttm": 6.5, "fcf_yield": 6.9, "ocf_yield": 7.9, "gm_median": 58.0, "gm_std": 3.4, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": 7.4, "npm_median": 7.7, "roe_median": 1.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.6, "fix_assets": 17.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.64, "capex_dep": 1.44, "interest_debt": 69.5, "debt_ebitda": 8.8, "debt_ratio": 68.6, "debt_mv": 73.1, "payout": 160.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 3.4, "np_cagr3": 28.1, "rev_yoy": 1.7, "np_yoy": 4.4, "np_vol": 49.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 78.1, "fwd_pe2": 64.3, "fwd_g1": 149.0, "fwd_g2": 21.0, "peg": 3.72, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["商业零售", 85.0], ["仓储物流", 10.0], ["酒店餐饮", 5.0], ["商业地产", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 158.4, "ret_prev2_year": 81.1, "ret_ytd": -38.5, "ret_pivot": 296.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 13.7, "ret_60": 27.2, "ret_120": -10.3, "ret_250": 78.0, "mdd_250": -65.5, "vol_250": 72.9, "pos_52w": 50.0}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 73, "hard": 19, "bondness": 72}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["轻资产现金牛"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 194.3 倍,估值里约 97% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 12%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(1 篇研报)前瞻 PE 78.1 倍,次年 64.3 倍,PEG 3.72。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 58.0%),硬资产占比 12%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.9%(经营现金流/市值 7.9%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 58.0%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 7.4 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 1.44 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 194.3 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 78%,最大回撤 -66%,年化波动 73%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 14% / 27% / -10%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「一般零售」60 家中位:PE 60.7 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 34.2% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 51%。", "东百集团:PE 比行业中位高 133.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 23.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.8个百分点。"]}}