{"F": {"ts_code": "600691.SH", "name": "潞化科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "农化制品", "sw3": "氮肥", "ind": "农化制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19931119", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.01, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.2295, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 715170.582, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [10.0, 12.1, 8.4, 5.3, 4.8, 3.3], "rev_series": [179.5, 187.4, 170.4, 136.2, 108.9, 98.5], "np_series": [1.3, 4.3, 0.7, -13.7, -6.8, -8.3], "roe_series": [2.4, 7.5, 1.2, -25.6, -15.8, -23.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 94.3, "np_ttm": -5.5, "ocf_ttm": 7.3, "fcf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_yield": 1.0, "ocf_yield": 10.2, "gm_median": 5.3, "gm_std": 3.1, "gm_stab": 0.41, "gm_chg_2022": -1.6, "npm_median": -7.0, "roe_median": -15.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 53.7, "fix_assets": 74.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.23, "capex_dep": 1.0, "interest_debt": 71.7, "debt_ebitda": 13.3, "debt_ratio": 75.8, "debt_mv": 100.3, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -16.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -8.2, "np_yoy": 120.1, "np_vol": 844.3, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["化工", 20.0], ["化肥", 14.0], ["装备制造", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 24.3, "ret_prev2_year": -30.8, "ret_ytd": 9.1, "ret_pivot": 70.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 22.9, "ret_60": 14.9, "ret_120": -32.1, "ret_250": 20.9, "mdd_250": -54.4, "vol_250": 55.1, "pos_52w": 63.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 23, "hard": 86, "bondness": 35}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 54%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 5.3%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.6 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 13.3 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 54%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 5.3%,稳定度 41%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.0%(经营现金流/市值 10.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 5.3%,稳定度 41%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 54%,资本开支/折旧 1.00 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 21%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 55%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 23% / 15% / -32%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农化制品」62 家中位:PE 20.8 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 19.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 45%。", "潞化科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 14.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 18.1个百分点。"]}}