{"F": {"ts_code": "600689.SH", "name": "上海三毛", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "综合", "sw2": "综合Ⅱ", "sw3": "综合Ⅲ", "ind": "综合Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19931108", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.66, "pe_ttm": 196.4827, "pb": 5.309, "dv_ttm": 0.1422, "total_mv": 254454.9858, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [7.8, 6.5, 8.6, 7.0, 5.3, 4.1], "rev_series": [9.5, 8.8, 10.3, 10.9, 12.0, 15.4], "np_series": [-0.4, 0.1, -0.1, 0.2, 0.2, 0.1], "roe_series": [-7.9, 2.7, -3.0, 4.1, 4.1, 2.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 15.4, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -1.4, "ocf_yield": -1.4, "gm_median": 6.5, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.77, "gm_chg_2022": 0.8, "npm_median": 1.3, "roe_median": 2.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.5, "fix_assets": 0.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.31, "capex_dep": 0.03, "interest_debt": 0.4, "debt_ebitda": 2.1, "debt_ratio": 57.4, "debt_mv": 1.6, "payout": 23.3, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 14.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 0.5, "np_yoy": 13.6, "np_vol": 152.1, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["贸易", 36.0], ["安防服务", 13.0], ["园区租赁及其他", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 25.8, "ret_prev2_year": -7.5, "ret_ytd": -5.7, "ret_pivot": 80.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 23.9, "ret_60": 11.3, "ret_120": -5.9, "ret_250": -5.6, "mdd_250": -43.9, "vol_250": 35.7, "pos_52w": 79.0}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 38, "hard": 1, "bondness": 21}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 196.5 倍,估值里约 97% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 0%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 0%,毛利率近 5 年中位 6.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.4%(经营现金流/市值 -1.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 6.5%,稳定度 77%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 0%,资本开支/折旧 0.03 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 196.5 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -6%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 79%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 24% / 11% / -6%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「综合Ⅱ」20 家中位:PE 46.7 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 15.5% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 35%。", "上海三毛:PE 比行业中位高 149.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 11.9个百分点。"]}}