{"F": {"ts_code": "600688.SH", "name": "上海石化", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "石油石化", "sw2": "炼化及贸易", "sw3": "炼油化工", "ind": "炼化及贸易", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19931108", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.88, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.2963, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 3036273.84, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.9, 19.7, 10.9, 14.9, 17.3, 15.9], "rev_series": [747.1, 892.8, 825.2, 930.1, 871.3, 755.6], "np_series": [6.3, 20.0, -28.7, -14.1, 3.2, -14.3], "roe_series": [2.1, 6.7, -10.2, -5.5, 1.3, -5.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 750.3, "np_ttm": -6.7, "ocf_ttm": 3.7, "fcf_ttm": -35.2, "fcf_yield": -11.6, "ocf_yield": 1.2, "gm_median": 15.9, "gm_std": 2.9, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": -10.0, "npm_median": -1.5, "roe_median": -5.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 44.1, "fix_assets": 189.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.3, "capex_dep": 2.1, "interest_debt": 39.0, "debt_ebitda": 2.3, "debt_ratio": 42.9, "debt_mv": 12.8, "payout": 66.7, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -2.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -1.3, "np_yoy": 165.0, "np_vol": 281.9, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 64.0, "fwd_pe2": 44.3, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 44.0, "peg": 1.45, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["炼油产品", 53.0], ["化工产品", 21.0], ["化工", 21.0], ["石油化工产品贸易", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": -7.3, "ret_prev2_year": 5.6, "ret_ytd": 3.6, "ret_pivot": 14.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.3, "ret_60": -0.3, "ret_120": -11.7, "ret_250": -1.7, "mdd_250": -29.2, "vol_250": 36.2, "pos_52w": 75.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 40, "hard": 71, "bondness": 50}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 44%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 15.9%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.0 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.3 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 44%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 15.9%,稳定度 82%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -11.6%(经营现金流/市值 1.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.9%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 44%,资本开支/折旧 2.10 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -2%,最大回撤 -29%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / -0% / -12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「炼化及贸易」30 家中位:PE 24.2 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 10.6% / 固定资产占比 43% / 分红率 49%。", "上海石化:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点。"]}}