{"F": {"ts_code": "600686.SH", "name": "金龙汽车", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "商用车", "sw3": "商用载客车", "ind": "商用车", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19931108", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.36, "pe_ttm": 12.9657, "pb": 2.2516, "dv_ttm": 2.0246, "total_mv": 814565.8464, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [12.4, 8.8, 9.6, 11.6, 10.2, 12.7], "rev_series": [139.6, 154.2, 182.4, 194.0, 229.7, 245.5], "np_series": [0.3, -6.0, -3.9, 0.8, 1.6, 4.7], "roe_series": [0.7, -13.0, -10.2, 2.2, 4.9, 13.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 253.0, "np_ttm": 6.3, "ocf_ttm": 13.1, "fcf_ttm": 10.6, "fcf_yield": 13.0, "ocf_yield": 16.1, "gm_median": 10.2, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -2.8, "npm_median": 0.7, "roe_median": 2.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.9, "fix_assets": 30.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 2.25, "capex_dep": 0.74, "interest_debt": 42.4, "debt_ebitda": 3.9, "debt_ratio": 83.8, "debt_mv": 52.1, "payout": 36.4, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 10.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 7.3, "np_yoy": 137.6, "np_vol": 834.1, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 61.0, "earn_yield": 7.7, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 11.5, "fwd_pe2": 8.0, "fwd_g1": 13.0, "fwd_g2": 44.0, "peg": 0.26, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["汽车及车身件", 46.0], ["其他业务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 27.6, "ret_prev2_year": 90.3, "ret_ytd": -35.2, "ret_pivot": 4.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.3, "ret_60": -6.1, "ret_120": -31.7, "ret_250": -9.1, "mdd_250": -52.4, "vol_250": 51.9, "pos_52w": 52.2}, "S": {"duration": 28, "pricing": 41, "hard": 17, "bondness": 46}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 138%,PE TTM 13.0 倍 但前瞻 PE 11.5 倍,PEG 0.26。", "自由现金流 10.6 亿(正),次年预期增速 44%(3 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 11%,毛利率近 5 年中位 10.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 13.0%(经营现金流/市值 16.1%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.2%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 0.74 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.0 倍 粗算,约 61%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -9%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 52%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -6% / -32%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「商用车」13 家中位:PE 13.6 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 10.2% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 38%。", "金龙汽车:PE 比行业中位低 0.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.2个百分点;毛利率 与行业中位持平;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.4个百分点。"]}}