{"F": {"ts_code": "600685.SH", "name": "中船防务", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "航海装备Ⅱ", "sw3": "航海装备Ⅲ", "ind": "航海装备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19931028", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 27.44, "pe_ttm": 29.417, "pb": 2.0427, "dv_ttm": 0.7835, "total_mv": 3878661.5616, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [6.5, 10.2, 6.9, 6.6, 7.8, 10.1], "rev_series": [116.1, 116.7, 128.0, 161.5, 194.0, 205.5], "np_series": [36.6, 0.8, 6.9, 0.5, 3.8, 10.1], "roe_series": [29.8, 0.5, 4.4, 0.3, 2.2, 5.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 214.9, "np_ttm": 13.2, "ocf_ttm": 34.0, "fcf_ttm": 30.1, "fcf_yield": 7.8, "ocf_yield": 8.8, "gm_median": 7.8, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.8, "gm_chg_2022": 0.4, "npm_median": 2.4, "roe_median": 2.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.1, "fix_assets": 49.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.04, "capex_dep": 1.07, "interest_debt": 49.1, "debt_ebitda": 5.5, "debt_ratio": 62.9, "debt_mv": 12.7, "payout": 30.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 17.1, "np_cagr3": 13.6, "rev_yoy": 9.3, "np_yoy": 58.9, "np_vol": 373.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 83.0, "earn_yield": 3.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 26.0], ["船舶产品", 22.0], ["船舶产品：特种船及其他", 16.0], ["特种船及其他", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": 20.9, "ret_prev2_year": -7.2, "ret_ytd": -3.1, "ret_pivot": 21.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.1, "ret_60": 9.8, "ret_120": -17.9, "ret_250": -7.3, "mdd_250": -34.6, "vol_250": 41.5, "pos_52w": 73.5}, "S": {"duration": 52, "pricing": 40, "hard": 13, "bondness": 33}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 29.4 倍、股息率 0.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 7.8%、固定资产占比 8%、有息负债/EBITDA 5.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 8%,毛利率近 5 年中位 7.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.8%(经营现金流/市值 8.8%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 7.8%,稳定度 80%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 1.07 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 29.4 倍 粗算,约 83%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -7%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 10% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航海装备Ⅱ」10 家中位:PE 30.4 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 20.8% / 固定资产占比 13% / 分红率 30%。", "中船防务:PE 比行业中位低 1.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 13.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.8个百分点。"]}}