{"F": {"ts_code": "600683.SH", "name": "京投发展", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "房地产", "sw2": "房地产开发", "sw3": "住宅开发", "ind": "房地产开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19931025", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.55, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": null, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 707442.608, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.2, 21.3, 19.5, 7.6, 3.6, 5.8], "rev_series": [88.6, 67.7, 55.5, 106.4, 14.2, 57.2], "np_series": [5.0, 3.3, 2.0, -6.6, -10.5, -12.2], "roe_series": [10.9, 4.2, 2.2, -7.9, -14.8, -26.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 91.5, "np_ttm": -12.7, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_yield": 1.3, "ocf_yield": 1.3, "gm_median": 7.6, "gm_std": 7.4, "gm_stab": 0.03, "gm_chg_2022": -8.7, "npm_median": -9.9, "roe_median": -7.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 3.1, "fix_assets": 17.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.02, "capex_dep": 0.02, "interest_debt": 449.4, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 90.0, "debt_mv": 635.3, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 1.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 831.6, "np_yoy": -18.7, "np_vol": 156.2, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["房地产业务", 49.0], ["房产销售", 49.0], ["服务及其他", 2.0], ["物业租赁", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 12.4, "ret_prev2_year": -20.5, "ret_ytd": 123.7, "ret_pivot": 138.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.2, "ret_60": -24.4, "ret_120": 9.0, "ret_250": 122.6, "mdd_250": -64.2, "vol_250": 74.5, "pos_52w": 45.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 9, "hard": 5, "bondness": 22}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -12.7 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 90%,有息负债 449 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 3%,毛利率近 5 年中位 7.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.3%(经营现金流/市值 1.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 7.6%,稳定度 3%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 3%,资本开支/折旧 0.02 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 123%,最大回撤 -64%,年化波动 74%,现价在 52 周高点的 46%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / -24% / 9%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「房地产开发」83 家中位:PE 26.0 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 21.1% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 36%。", "京投发展:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 13.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点。"]}}