{"F": {"ts_code": "600681.SH", "name": "百川能源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "燃气Ⅱ", "sw3": "燃气Ⅲ", "ind": "燃气Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19931018", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.5, "pe_ttm": 21.5082, "pb": 1.2904, "dv_ttm": 4.2857, "total_mv": 469299.18, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.4, 22.1, 17.4, 15.4, 15.3, 13.8], "rev_series": [43.0, 46.2, 50.1, 52.2, 50.9, 52.1], "np_series": [5.1, 5.4, 3.9, 3.7, 3.2, 2.4], "roe_series": [11.6, 13.2, 10.3, 10.1, 8.7, 6.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 49.6, "np_ttm": 2.2, "ocf_ttm": 5.9, "fcf_ttm": 4.6, "fcf_yield": 9.8, "ocf_yield": 12.6, "gm_median": 15.4, "gm_std": 2.9, "gm_stab": 0.81, "gm_chg_2022": -5.9, "npm_median": 7.4, "roe_median": 10.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 54.7, "fix_assets": 42.5, "goodwill_ratio": 16.3, "pb_calc": 1.29, "capex_dep": 0.58, "interest_debt": 22.7, "debt_ebitda": 2.9, "debt_ratio": 51.4, "debt_mv": 48.3, "payout": 98.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 1.3, "np_cagr3": -15.4, "rev_yoy": -8.4, "np_yoy": -11.5, "np_vol": 12.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["燃气分部", 33.0], ["燃气", 33.0], ["热力分部", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 32.9, "ret_prev2_year": -6.1, "ret_ytd": -17.8, "ret_pivot": 22.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.3, "ret_60": -0.8, "ret_120": -21.0, "ret_250": -3.8, "mdd_250": -40.6, "vol_250": 42.9, "pos_52w": 64.6}, "S": {"duration": 42, "pricing": 40, "hard": 88, "bondness": 88}, "label": "债券代理股", "tags": ["现金流红利", "商誉占比高", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["现金流像票息:近 5 年净利润增速波动 12个百分点,营收 3 年复合 1.3%,利润在窄区间里波动。", "分红率 99%、股息率 4.3%,每年派多少钱几乎可以预测。", "杠杆:有息负债 23 亿,有息负债/EBITDA 2.9 倍,资产负债率 51%。利率升财务费用直接吃利润。", "定价方式是利差:市场看的是股息率 4.3% 比十年期国债高多少。PE 21.5 倍 倒过来就是 4.6% 的盈利收益率,这是债的定价。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 55%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 15.4%,稳定度 81%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。 另外它被市场当长债替代品交易:利率上行时跟长债一起跌,不跟硬资产一起涨,这个标签贴错会亏钱。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期跟长债走,承压;国内降息周期反而受益。拿它盯国内十年期国债收益率,不要盯黄金和美元。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 9.8%(经营现金流/市值 12.6%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.4%,稳定度 81%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 55%,资本开支/折旧 0.58 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 21.5 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -4%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -1% / -21%。 债券代理股的波动应该低;波动偏高,市场没完全把它当债。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「燃气Ⅱ」30 家中位:PE 22.2 / 股息率 2.5% / 毛利率 15.7% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 50%。", "百川能源:PE 比行业中位低 0.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.1个百分点。"]}}