{"F": {"ts_code": "600679.SH", "name": "上海凤凰", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "摩托车及其他", "sw3": "其他运输设备", "ind": "摩托车及其他", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19931008", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.15, "pe_ttm": 53.1442, "pb": 2.446, "dv_ttm": 0.6207, "total_mv": 502723.7145, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.8, 16.1, 17.4, 15.4, 12.8, 15.2], "rev_series": [13.8, 20.6, 16.1, 17.4, 21.9, 21.6], "np_series": [0.6, 1.0, -3.1, 0.5, -1.4, 1.1], "roe_series": [3.7, 4.8, -13.5, 2.1, -6.6, 5.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.3, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 3.0, "fcf_ttm": 1.9, "fcf_yield": 3.8, "ocf_yield": 5.9, "gm_median": 15.4, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": 2.7, "npm_median": 2.5, "roe_median": 2.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.4, "fix_assets": 2.7, "goodwill_ratio": 5.7, "pb_calc": 2.45, "capex_dep": 1.75, "interest_debt": 13.3, "debt_ebitda": 6.5, "debt_ratio": 58.0, "debt_mv": 26.5, "payout": 30.4, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 10.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 5.3, "np_yoy": -25.3, "np_vol": 258.2, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["自行车业务", 44.0], ["其他类", 3.0], ["辐条业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 2.3, "ret_prev2_year": 27.4, "ret_ytd": -24.1, "ret_pivot": 8.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.1, "ret_60": 9.8, "ret_120": -15.3, "ret_250": -25.0, "mdd_250": -41.2, "vol_250": 27.8, "pos_52w": 69.0}, "S": {"duration": 74, "pricing": 49, "hard": 9, "bondness": 39}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.9 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 53 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 58%,有息负债 13 亿,经营现金流/市值 5.9%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 5%,毛利率近 5 年中位 15.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.8%(经营现金流/市值 5.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.4%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 5%,资本开支/折旧 1.75 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 53.1 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -25%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 28%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 10% / -15%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「摩托车及其他」18 家中位:PE 28.8 / 股息率 1.9% / 毛利率 17.1% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 50%。", "上海凤凰:PE 比行业中位高 24.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.7个百分点。"]}}