{"F": {"ts_code": "600674.SH", "name": "川投能源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "水力发电", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19930924", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.76, "pe_ttm": 16.6185, "pb": 1.7194, "dv_ttm": 3.1726, "total_mv": 7682380.3168, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [46.5, 41.9, 38.5, 46.4, 51.2, 50.7], "rev_series": [10.3, 12.6, 14.2, 14.8, 16.1, 16.7], "np_series": [31.6, 30.9, 35.2, 44.0, 45.1, 47.5], "roe_series": [11.3, 10.3, 10.8, 12.4, 11.4, 10.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 16.4, "np_ttm": 46.2, "ocf_ttm": 8.8, "fcf_ttm": -2.9, "fcf_yield": -0.4, "ocf_yield": 1.1, "gm_median": 46.4, "gm_std": 4.9, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -8.0, "npm_median": 287.8, "roe_median": 10.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 16.5, "fix_assets": 118.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.72, "capex_dep": 3.12, "interest_debt": 188.8, "debt_ebitda": 20.7, "debt_ratio": 35.1, "debt_mv": 24.6, "payout": 43.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 5.5, "np_cagr3": 10.6, "rev_yoy": -4.5, "np_yoy": -5.3, "np_vol": 9.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 70.0, "earn_yield": 6.0, "consensus_n": 13, "fwd_pe": 15.1, "fwd_pe2": 14.2, "fwd_g1": 10.0, "fwd_g2": 6.0, "peg": 2.52, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["电力业务", 45.0], ["电力", 45.0], ["非电力业务", 5.0], ["非电力", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": -18.0, "ret_prev2_year": 18.3, "ret_ytd": 17.6, "ret_pivot": -6.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.3, "ret_60": 5.0, "ret_120": 3.5, "ret_250": 4.4, "mdd_250": -15.0, "vol_250": 19.9, "pos_52w": 98.3}, "S": {"duration": 34, "pricing": 58, "hard": 26, "bondness": 64}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 43%、股息率 3.2%、营收 3 年复合 5.5%、有息负债/EBITDA 20.7 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 46.4%),硬资产占比 16%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.4%(经营现金流/市值 1.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 46.4%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 3.12 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 16.6 倍 粗算,约 70%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 4%,最大回撤 -15%,年化波动 20%,现价在 52 周高点的 98%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 5% / 4%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "川投能源:PE 比行业中位低 11.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 23.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 44.2个百分点。"]}}