{"F": {"ts_code": "600673.SH", "name": "东阳光", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "综合", "sw2": "综合Ⅱ", "sw3": "综合Ⅲ", "ind": "综合Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19930917", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 30.53, "pe_ttm": 1763.63, "pb": 8.7688, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 9188171.415, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.2, 21.5, 20.2, 11.1, 14.6, 19.9], "rev_series": [103.7, 128.0, 117.0, 108.5, 122.0, 149.3], "np_series": [4.2, 8.7, 12.4, -2.9, 3.7, 2.8], "roe_series": [6.0, 11.2, 13.5, -3.0, 4.0, 3.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 171.9, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 35.5, "fcf_ttm": -43.6, "fcf_yield": -4.7, "ocf_yield": 3.9, "gm_median": 19.9, "gm_std": 4.0, "gm_stab": 0.8, "gm_chg_2022": -12.0, "npm_median": 3.1, "roe_median": 4.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.9, "fix_assets": 135.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 8.77, "capex_dep": 11.23, "interest_debt": 177.7, "debt_ebitda": 8.9, "debt_ratio": 71.3, "debt_mv": 19.3, "payout": null, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 8.5, "np_cagr3": -39.5, "rev_yoy": 31.6, "np_yoy": -36.5, "np_vol": 119.2, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100.0, "earn_yield": 0.1, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 52.1, "fwd_pe2": 40.5, "fwd_g1": 3286.0, "fwd_g2": 29.0, "peg": 1.8, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["基石业务", 25.0], ["高端铝箔类", 10.0], ["高端铝箔", 10.0], ["基石业务：高端铝箔", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 98.7, "ret_prev2_year": 61.4, "ret_ytd": 36.1, "ret_pivot": 386.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.2, "ret_60": -7.9, "ret_120": -12.3, "ret_250": 50.9, "mdd_250": -39.8, "vol_250": 67.7, "pos_52w": 71.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 42, "hard": 53, "bondness": 26}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 33%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 19.9%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.0 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 8.9 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 33%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 19.9%,稳定度 80%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.7%(经营现金流/市值 3.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.9%,稳定度 80%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 33%,资本开支/折旧 11.23 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 1763.6 倍 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 51%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 68%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -8% / -12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「综合Ⅱ」20 家中位:PE 46.7 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 15.5% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 35%。", "东阳光:PE 比行业中位高 1716.9倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 20.5个百分点。"]}}