{"F": {"ts_code": "600671.SH", "name": "天目药业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "中药Ⅱ", "sw3": "中药Ⅲ", "ind": "中药Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19930823", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 21.88, "pe_ttm": 194.8174, "pb": 34.9177, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 266452.2332, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [38.8, 31.2, 22.9, 21.8, 47.4, 47.8], "rev_series": [2.1, 1.5, 1.1, 1.2, 2.2, 2.1], "np_series": [-0.4, -0.3, -0.7, -0.4, 0.2, 0.2], "roe_series": [-45.3, -50.5, -442.2, -340.1, 34.1, 28.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.1, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 1.0, "ocf_yield": 1.8, "gm_median": 31.2, "gm_std": 11.4, "gm_stab": 0.64, "gm_chg_2022": -15.9, "npm_median": -22.3, "roe_median": -50.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 38.4, "fix_assets": 1.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.4, "pb_calc": 34.92, "capex_dep": 1.33, "interest_debt": 1.9, "debt_ebitda": 3.7, "debt_ratio": 78.1, "debt_mv": 7.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 24.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -4.1, "np_yoy": -38.5, "np_vol": 85.4, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 41.0], ["保健品", 14.0], ["药品流通", 9.0], ["药品-流通商品", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 97.2, "ret_prev2_year": -24.7, "ret_ytd": 26.4, "ret_pivot": 237.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.6, "ret_60": 37.3, "ret_120": 2.6, "ret_250": 10.5, "mdd_250": -29.2, "vol_250": 45.3, "pos_52w": 95.7}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 42, "hard": 61, "bondness": 11}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 195 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 78%,有息负债 2 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 31.2%,稳定度 64%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.0%(经营现金流/市值 1.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 31.2%,稳定度 64%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -15.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 1.33 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 194.8 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 10%,最大回撤 -29%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 96%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 37% / 3%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「中药Ⅱ」68 家中位:PE 23.1 / 股息率 2.8% / 毛利率 57.5% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 64%。", "天目药业:PE 比行业中位高 171.7倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 26.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 15.0个百分点。"]}}