{"F": {"ts_code": "600663.SH", "name": "陆家嘴", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "房地产", "sw2": "房地产开发", "sw3": "商业地产", "ind": "房地产开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19930628", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.09, "pe_ttm": 30.1396, "pb": 1.7942, "dv_ttm": 1.3564, "total_mv": 4576954.7133, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [70.6, 70.2, 41.2, 58.4, 44.0, 36.1], "rev_series": [144.7, 138.7, 117.6, 106.7, 146.5, 181.7], "np_series": [40.1, 43.1, 10.8, 10.9, 15.1, 12.3], "roe_series": [20.9, 20.1, 4.9, 4.9, 6.4, 4.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 196.7, "np_ttm": 15.2, "ocf_ttm": 111.3, "fcf_ttm": 95.6, "fcf_yield": 20.9, "ocf_yield": 24.3, "gm_median": 44.0, "gm_std": 12.5, "gm_stab": 0.71, "gm_chg_2022": -29.4, "npm_median": 12.4, "roe_median": 4.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 3.5, "fix_assets": 61.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.5, "pb_calc": 1.79, "capex_dep": 1.22, "interest_debt": 764.8, "debt_ebitda": 16.3, "debt_ratio": 70.8, "debt_mv": 167.1, "payout": 50.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 15.6, "np_cagr3": 4.2, "rev_yoy": 22.7, "np_yoy": 35.9, "np_vol": 31.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 83.0, "earn_yield": 3.3, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 22.2, "fwd_pe2": 19.2, "fwd_g1": 36.0, "fwd_g2": 15.0, "peg": 1.48, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["房地产", 43.0], ["房产销售收入", 23.0], ["房地产租赁收入", 9.0], ["物业管理", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": -18.5, "ret_prev2_year": 15.1, "ret_ytd": 15.8, "ret_pivot": 15.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.4, "ret_60": 41.1, "ret_120": 15.1, "ret_250": 3.2, "mdd_250": -28.7, "vol_250": 29.1, "pos_52w": 94.2}, "S": {"duration": 53, "pricing": 51, "hard": 6, "bondness": 45}, "label": "轻资产现金牛", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["固定资产占比 4%,毛利率近 5 年中位 44.0%,自由现金流/市值 20.9%:现金机器,久期短。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 4%,毛利率近 5 年中位 44.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "久期短、无杠杆,加息期相对安全;放水期跑不过科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 20.9%(经营现金流/市值 24.3%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 44.0%,稳定度 71%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -29.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 4%,资本开支/折旧 1.22 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 30.1 倍 粗算,约 83%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 3%,最大回撤 -29%,年化波动 29%,现价在 52 周高点的 94%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / 41% / 15%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「房地产开发」83 家中位:PE 26.0 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 21.1% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 36%。", "陆家嘴:PE 比行业中位高 4.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 22.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.5个百分点。"]}}