{"F": {"ts_code": "600661.SH", "name": "昂立教育", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "社会服务", "sw2": "教育", "sw3": "培训教育", "ind": "教育", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19930614", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.8, "pe_ttm": 21.9659, "pb": 9.5098, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 252162.944, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.7, 40.8, 45.6, 41.7, 44.7, 48.2], "rev_series": [18.1, 15.9, 7.6, 9.7, 12.3, 13.7], "np_series": [-2.5, -2.0, 1.7, -1.9, -0.5, 0.9], "roe_series": [-33.7, -55.5, 65.9, -80.7, -56.0, 64.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.3, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": 2.7, "fcf_ttm": 2.4, "fcf_yield": 9.3, "ocf_yield": 10.5, "gm_median": 44.7, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": 12.9, "npm_median": -2.8, "roe_median": -55.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 3.1, "fix_assets": 0.5, "goodwill_ratio": 5.9, "pb_calc": 9.51, "capex_dep": 3.05, "interest_debt": 3.7, "debt_ebitda": 1.4, "debt_ratio": 79.4, "debt_mv": 14.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 21.8, "np_cagr3": -19.7, "rev_yoy": 8.4, "np_yoy": 977.3, "np_vol": 166.2, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.6, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 17.4, "fwd_pe2": 12.7, "fwd_g1": 26.0, "fwd_g2": 37.0, "peg": 0.47, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["教育与服务", 86.0], ["旅游板块", 6.0], ["旅游", 6.0], ["精密制造", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -12.5, "ret_prev2_year": 9.5, "ret_ytd": -14.1, "ret_pivot": -18.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.8, "ret_60": 12.5, "ret_120": -13.0, "ret_250": -22.2, "mdd_250": -38.8, "vol_250": 33.3, "pos_52w": 77.9}, "S": {"duration": 42, "pricing": 66, "hard": 5, "bondness": 4}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["轻资产现金牛", "亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 977%,PE TTM 22.0 倍 但前瞻 PE 17.4 倍,PEG 0.47。", "自由现金流 2.4 亿(正),次年预期增速 37%(4 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 44.7%),硬资产占比 3%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 9.3%(经营现金流/市值 10.5%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 44.7%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 12.9 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 3%,资本开支/折旧 3.05 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 22.0 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -22%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 33%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / 12% / -13%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「教育」17 家中位:PE 96.5 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 43.0% / 固定资产占比 6% / 分红率 49%。", "昂立教育:PE 比行业中位低 74.5倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.8个百分点。"]}}