{"F": {"ts_code": "600660.SH", "name": "福耀玻璃", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "车身附件及饰件", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19930610", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 57.33, "pe_ttm": 17.6479, "pb": 3.9193, "dv_ttm": 3.663, "total_mv": 14961659.4855, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [39.5, 35.9, 34.0, 35.4, 36.2, 37.3], "rev_series": [199.1, 236.0, 281.0, 331.6, 392.5, 457.9], "np_series": [26.0, 31.5, 47.6, 56.3, 75.0, 93.1], "roe_series": [12.1, 13.1, 17.2, 18.6, 22.3, 25.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 463.1, "np_ttm": 84.8, "ocf_ttm": 112.5, "fcf_ttm": 56.5, "fcf_yield": 3.8, "ocf_yield": 7.5, "gm_median": 35.9, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -5.5, "npm_median": 17.0, "roe_median": 18.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 36.8, "fix_assets": 272.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 3.92, "capex_dep": 2.15, "interest_debt": 222.1, "debt_ebitda": 1.6, "debt_ratio": 48.4, "debt_mv": 14.8, "payout": 60.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 17.7, "np_cagr3": 25.1, "rev_yoy": 2.4, "np_yoy": -17.4, "np_vol": 11.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 72.0, "earn_yield": 5.7, "consensus_n": 19, "fwd_pe": 15.0, "fwd_pe2": 12.9, "fwd_g1": 17.0, "fwd_g2": 17.0, "peg": 0.88, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["汽车玻璃", 101.0], ["浮法玻璃", 16.0], ["其他主营业务", 11.0], ["其他", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 8.7, "ret_prev2_year": 81.7, "ret_ytd": -9.8, "ret_pivot": 18.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.5, "ret_60": 9.4, "ret_120": -1.7, "ret_250": -5.6, "mdd_250": -33.4, "vol_250": 25.2, "pos_52w": 79.5}, "S": {"duration": 36, "pricing": 56, "hard": 59, "bondness": 50}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["现金流红利", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 272 亿,占总资产 37%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 35.9%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.5 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 3.8%,股息率 3.7%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 72%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 37%)和定价权(毛利率 35.9% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.8%(经营现金流/市值 7.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 35.9%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 37%,资本开支/折旧 2.15 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 17.6 倍 粗算,约 72%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -6%,最大回撤 -33%,年化波动 25%,现价在 52 周高点的 80%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 9% / -2%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "福耀玻璃:PE 比行业中位低 12.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.3个百分点。"]}}