{"F": {"ts_code": "600655.SH", "name": "豫园股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "商贸零售", "sw2": "一般零售", "sw3": "商业物业经营", "ind": "一般零售", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19920902", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.54, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 0.5911, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1766608.6136, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.5, 24.1, 17.9, 14.1, 13.6, 13.3], "rev_series": [440.5, 510.6, 501.2, 581.5, 469.2, 363.7], "np_series": [36.1, 38.6, 38.3, 20.2, 1.3, -49.0], "roe_series": [11.2, 11.5, 10.9, 5.6, 0.3, -14.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 342.8, "np_ttm": -48.0, "ocf_ttm": 9.3, "fcf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_yield": 0.4, "ocf_yield": 5.3, "gm_median": 14.1, "gm_std": 4.1, "gm_stab": 0.71, "gm_chg_2022": -6.6, "npm_median": 3.1, "roe_median": 5.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 2.5, "fix_assets": 27.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.8, "pb_calc": 0.59, "capex_dep": 2.75, "interest_debt": 438.4, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 69.7, "debt_mv": 248.1, "payout": 315.1, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -10.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -11.0, "np_yoy": 157.2, "np_vol": 1591.1, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 20, "fwd_pe": 64.4, "fwd_pe2": 28.7, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 125.0, "peg": 0.52, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["珠宝时尚", 39.0], ["时尚珠宝产品", 39.0], ["物业开发与销售", 14.0], ["商业经营管理与租赁", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": -17.8, "ret_prev2_year": 7.0, "ret_ytd": -11.5, "ret_pivot": -7.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.3, "ret_60": 3.9, "ret_120": -8.8, "ret_250": -27.6, "mdd_250": -35.0, "vol_250": 26.9, "pos_52w": 71.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 36, "hard": 4, "bondness": 58}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -48.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 70%,有息负债 438 亿,经营现金流/市值 5.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 2%,毛利率近 5 年中位 14.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.4%(经营现金流/市值 5.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.1%,稳定度 71%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 2%,资本开支/折旧 2.75 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 27%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / 4% / -9%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「一般零售」60 家中位:PE 60.7 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 34.2% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 51%。", "豫园股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 20.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 12.9个百分点。"]}}