{"F": {"ts_code": "600654.SH", "name": "中安科", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19901219", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.26, "pe_ttm": 93.8126, "pb": 4.9319, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 927603.5296, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [6.2, 14.0, 11.0, 16.3, 15.7, 15.0], "rev_series": [30.1, 25.2, 25.4, 28.6, 30.5, 30.7], "np_series": [-1.8, -15.0, -3.4, 0.9, 0.2, 0.5], "roe_series": [-89.8, null, -5064.2, 5.9, 1.2, 3.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 26.7, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_yield": 0.2, "ocf_yield": 0.6, "gm_median": 15.0, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": 4.8, "npm_median": 0.7, "roe_median": 2.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.6, "fix_assets": 3.3, "goodwill_ratio": 7.2, "pb_calc": 4.93, "capex_dep": 1.03, "interest_debt": 2.6, "debt_ebitda": 2.7, "debt_ratio": 45.1, "debt_mv": 2.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 6.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -25.4, "np_yoy": 1825.5, "np_vol": 327.8, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["安保运营服务", 34.0], ["智慧城市系统集成", 12.0], ["安保智能产品制造", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 16.7, "ret_prev2_year": 34.0, "ret_ytd": -13.5, "ret_pivot": 46.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.0, "ret_60": 14.4, "ret_120": -6.6, "ret_250": -13.3, "mdd_250": -45.9, "vol_250": 50.7, "pos_52w": 69.7}, "S": {"duration": 90, "pricing": 49, "hard": 15, "bondness": 22}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 1.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 94 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 45%,有息负债 3 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 10%,毛利率近 5 年中位 15.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.2%(经营现金流/市值 0.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.0%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 1.03 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 93.8 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -13%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 14% / -7%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "中安科:PE 比行业中位高 11.1倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 33.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点。"]}}