{"F": {"ts_code": "600653.SH", "name": "申华控股", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车服务", "sw3": "汽车经销商", "ind": "汽车服务", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19901219", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 1.72, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 5.3207, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 334777.4116, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [8.6, 10.1, 7.1, 7.0, 6.7, 4.5], "rev_series": [69.0, 71.0, 59.5, 51.4, 41.9, 36.6], "np_series": [-7.6, 0.4, -1.7, -2.0, 0.4, -1.8], "roe_series": [-50.7, 3.6, -15.9, -22.3, 4.8, -24.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 32.1, "np_ttm": -1.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_yield": 1.7, "ocf_yield": 3.1, "gm_median": 7.0, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.75, "gm_chg_2022": -1.5, "npm_median": -2.5, "roe_median": -15.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.5, "fix_assets": 4.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.32, "capex_dep": 0.78, "interest_debt": 11.6, "debt_ebitda": 28.6, "debt_ratio": 71.7, "debt_mv": 34.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -15.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -24.3, "np_yoy": 68.7, "np_vol": 302.7, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["汽车零售", 33.0], ["汽车销售", 33.0], ["大厦出租", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -11.2, "ret_prev2_year": 15.7, "ret_ytd": -9.5, "ret_pivot": 31.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.6, "ret_60": 5.5, "ret_120": -10.4, "ret_250": -15.7, "mdd_250": -37.8, "vol_250": 30.8, "pos_52w": 71.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 36, "hard": 25, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 72%,有息负债 12 亿,经营现金流/市值 3.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 16%,毛利率近 5 年中位 7.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.7%(经营现金流/市值 3.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 7.0%,稳定度 75%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 0.78 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 31%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 6% / -10%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车服务」10 家中位:PE 28.7 / 股息率 2.2% / 毛利率 10.7% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 56%。", "申华控股:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.6个百分点。"]}}