{"F": {"ts_code": "600651.SH", "name": "飞乐音响", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "汽车电子电气系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19901219", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.55, "pe_ttm": 411.4888, "pb": 5.5251, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1391400.54, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.8, 24.9, 21.7, 17.7, 15.7, 17.4], "rev_series": [44.3, 45.7, 33.3, 19.7, 19.6, 18.1], "np_series": [4.3, -4.5, 3.1, 0.4, 0.4, 0.6], "roe_series": [81.0, -18.6, 13.7, 1.6, 1.6, 2.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 16.5, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 2.3, "fcf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_yield": 1.2, "ocf_yield": 1.7, "gm_median": 17.7, "gm_std": 3.4, "gm_stab": 0.81, "gm_chg_2022": -3.1, "npm_median": 2.0, "roe_median": 1.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.6, "fix_assets": 7.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.53, "capex_dep": 0.87, "interest_debt": 8.8, "debt_ebitda": 9.2, "debt_ratio": 37.2, "debt_mv": 6.3, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -18.4, "np_cagr3": -43.9, "rev_yoy": -18.0, "np_yoy": -92.3, "np_vol": 125.3, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["汽车电子电器产品销售", 11.0], ["汽车电子电器", 11.0], ["汽车照明产品销售", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 76.1, "ret_prev2_year": 15.0, "ret_ytd": -23.9, "ret_pivot": 90.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -13.3, "ret_60": -7.7, "ret_120": -23.7, "ret_250": -22.7, "mdd_250": -48.6, "vol_250": 46.4, "pos_52w": 56.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 42, "hard": 30, "bondness": 35}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 411.5 倍,估值里约 99% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 19%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 19%,毛利率近 5 年中位 17.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.2%(经营现金流/市值 1.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.7%,稳定度 81%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 0.87 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 411.5 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -23%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -13% / -8% / -24%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "飞乐音响:PE 比行业中位高 381.3倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.9个百分点。"]}}