{"F": {"ts_code": "600650.SH", "name": "锦江在线", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "铁路公路", "sw3": "公交", "ind": "铁路公路", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19930607", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.15, "pe_ttm": 50.6058, "pb": 1.4123, "dv_ttm": 0.9865, "total_mv": 615045.2615, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [12.7, 14.1, 7.1, 17.5, 16.5, 15.2], "rev_series": [26.6, 27.1, 20.9, 19.3, 18.3, 15.0], "np_series": [2.4, 1.3, 5.2, 1.5, 2.0, 1.4], "roe_series": [6.8, 3.7, 14.1, 3.9, 4.8, 3.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.2, "np_ttm": 1.2, "ocf_ttm": 2.2, "fcf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_yield": 1.4, "ocf_yield": 3.6, "gm_median": 15.2, "gm_std": 3.7, "gm_stab": 0.76, "gm_chg_2022": -5.6, "npm_median": 11.1, "roe_median": 3.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.1, "fix_assets": 7.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.7, "pb_calc": 1.41, "capex_dep": 0.69, "interest_debt": 1.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.7, "debt_ratio": 17.8, "debt_mv": 2.3, "payout": 30.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -10.3, "np_cagr3": -35.2, "rev_yoy": -13.2, "np_yoy": -26.3, "np_vol": 135.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["车辆运营", 21.0], ["汽车营运业务", 21.0], ["汽车销售业务", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 9.7, "ret_prev2_year": 48.5, "ret_ytd": -26.1, "ret_pivot": 9.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.1, "ret_60": 11.5, "ret_120": -22.5, "ret_250": -33.8, "mdd_250": -44.8, "vol_250": 36.4, "pos_52w": 64.5}, "S": {"duration": 72, "pricing": 38, "hard": 23, "bondness": 39}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 50.6 倍、股息率 1.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 15.2%、固定资产占比 14%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 14%,毛利率近 5 年中位 15.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.4%(经营现金流/市值 3.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.2%,稳定度 76%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 0.69 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 50.6 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -34%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 12% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「铁路公路」33 家中位:PE 15.4 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 32.2% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 48%。", "锦江在线:PE 比行业中位高 35.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 2.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 17.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.9个百分点。"]}}