{"F": {"ts_code": "600649.SH", "name": "城投控股", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "房地产", "sw2": "房地产开发", "sw3": "住宅开发", "ind": "房地产开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19930518", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.06, "pe_ttm": 120.1106, "pb": 0.4857, "dv_ttm": 0.9852, "total_mv": 1011671.1248, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [15.5, 22.5, 9.9, 40.3, 14.5, 17.4], "rev_series": [65.6, 91.9, 84.7, 25.6, 94.3, 144.6], "np_series": [7.7, 9.1, 7.8, 4.2, 2.4, 2.9], "roe_series": [3.9, 4.5, 3.8, 2.0, 1.2, 1.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 113.7, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": -2.1, "fcf_ttm": -1.9, "fcf_yield": -1.9, "ocf_yield": -2.0, "gm_median": 17.4, "gm_std": 10.5, "gm_stab": 0.4, "gm_chg_2022": -5.6, "npm_median": 9.3, "roe_median": 2.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 1.3, "fix_assets": 10.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.49, "capex_dep": -0.05, "interest_debt": 432.6, "debt_ebitda": 33.7, "debt_ratio": 73.3, "debt_mv": 427.6, "payout": 35.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 19.5, "np_cagr3": -28.2, "rev_yoy": -52.1, "np_yoy": -133.8, "np_vol": 28.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 31.2, "fwd_pe2": 23.5, "fwd_g1": 285.0, "fwd_g2": 33.0, "peg": 0.95, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["房地产业务", 48.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 0.9, "ret_prev2_year": 22.8, "ret_ytd": -7.9, "ret_pivot": 25.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.8, "ret_60": 12.8, "ret_120": -16.1, "ret_250": -16.3, "mdd_250": -39.1, "vol_250": 36.4, "pos_52w": 72.5}, "S": {"duration": 95, "pricing": 26, "hard": 2, "bondness": 34}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 120.1 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 1%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(4 篇研报)前瞻 PE 31.2 倍,次年 23.5 倍,PEG 0.95。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 1%,毛利率近 5 年中位 17.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.9%(经营现金流/市值 -2.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.4%,稳定度 40%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 1%,资本开支/折旧 -0.05 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 120.1 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 12% / 13% / -16%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「房地产开发」83 家中位:PE 26.0 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 21.1% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 36%。", "城投控股:PE 比行业中位高 94.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点。"]}}