{"F": {"ts_code": "600648.SH", "name": "外高桥", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "房地产", "sw2": "房地产开发", "sw3": "产业地产", "ind": "房地产开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19930504", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.33, "pe_ttm": 13.4577, "pb": 0.8147, "dv_ttm": 3.7513, "total_mv": 1268798.0826, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.3, 31.4, 33.7, 35.5, 31.6, 27.6], "rev_series": [101.5, 87.4, 90.6, 75.7, 71.0, 58.6], "np_series": [7.2, 9.4, 12.4, 9.3, 9.5, 9.4], "roe_series": [6.7, 8.3, 10.5, 7.6, 7.4, 6.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 62.6, "np_ttm": 9.4, "ocf_ttm": 5.2, "fcf_ttm": -1.8, "fcf_yield": -1.4, "ocf_yield": 4.1, "gm_median": 31.6, "gm_std": 2.6, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": 2.4, "npm_median": 13.6, "roe_median": 7.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 1.3, "fix_assets": 5.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.81, "capex_dep": 0.82, "interest_debt": 243.7, "debt_ebitda": 15.0, "debt_ratio": 65.7, "debt_mv": 192.1, "payout": 47.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -13.5, "np_cagr3": -9.0, "rev_yoy": 14.3, "np_yoy": 7.3, "np_vol": 21.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 63.0, "earn_yield": 7.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 39.0], ["贸易及服务", 18.0], ["物业经营", 11.0], ["物业经营：工业房产租赁", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": -13.1, "ret_prev2_year": 28.1, "ret_ytd": -4.2, "ret_pivot": 12.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.2, "ret_60": 11.3, "ret_120": -7.3, "ret_250": -17.4, "mdd_250": -32.0, "vol_250": 21.2, "pos_52w": 83.0}, "S": {"duration": 29, "pricing": 57, "hard": 2, "bondness": 74}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 48%、股息率 3.8%、营收 3 年复合 -13.5%、有息负债/EBITDA 15.0 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 31.6%),硬资产占比 1%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.4%(经营现金流/市值 4.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 31.6%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.4 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 1%,资本开支/折旧 0.82 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.5 倍 粗算,约 63%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -17%,最大回撤 -32%,年化波动 21%,现价在 52 周高点的 83%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 11% / -7%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「房地产开发」83 家中位:PE 26.0 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 21.1% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 36%。", "外高桥:PE 比行业中位低 12.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点。"]}}